Daily write-up - Nov 22nd

There are 3 NH meeting this afternoon: at Exeter and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

I have a confession to make…

Most evenings, I put at 2-3 hours into the form study for the following day – but I didn’t last night.

I started watching the football at 5:30 – and it was such a compelling game, the next thing I knew it was 7:30 !

With dinner etc. afterwards, I probably only spent an hour or so on the racing – so apologies for that.

Consequently, I don’t feel quite so comfortable passing judgement on lots of today races.

I checked out the big race of the day, the Troytown, on Friday – so I’m comfortable enough with the days tip.

I’m just not quite so comfortable with the mentions (that’s not to say they can’t win – just that they haven’t been researched and checked to the usual extent).

Anyway, here is my rationale for the tip – plus a few other thoughts on the day…

Navan

2:40

As doubtless a few of you will recall, The Troytown is a race with a dark history for TVB..!

Two years ago, it was won by Cootamundra – one of my absolute favourites.

The previous season, I had followed him over a cliff – tipping him 5 times.
However I deserted him on his big day, when winning this race at 25/1 (I think his BSP was 60 !).

Last season wasn’t quite as bad, but I still chose not to tip Balbriggen when he was a 14/1 shot – and then watched in horror as he was backed in to 4/1 fav, before sluicing up…

I did briefly consider not tipping Riverside City today – but I could really do without that kind of hattrick !

Riverside City actually received a positive mention from me on the very first day of this season.
He was running in the Cork National that day – but I felt the combination of a marathon trip and soft ground would prove too much for him (particularly on his seasonal debut) – and I was right.

However, he showed real promise that day – and with the run on his back and down in trip by half a mile today, I think he is worthy of support.

In truth, he shouldn’t be able to beat the third home from that race, Kylecrue.

The weights are exactly the same today and Riverside City finished 10 lengths adrift of him.

However Kyleclrue had a significant fitness advantage – and I’m hoping that Riverside City will have improved sufficiently for the run, to be able to turn the tables.

The winner of the Cork National, Tulsa Jack, could also be a tough nut to crack. However he is another who would have been cherry ripe that day, so will have his work cut out to defy a 10lb rise today.
In truth, it’s the kind of race where it is difficult to eliminate many – I just think that Riverside City has a fair bit of improvement in him – and hope that it’s today, that Gordon Elliot has been targeting for him (Elliot trained Balbriggen last year, and has a real affinity with the race).

If you want an in-running play for the race, then Kylecrue is probably your boy.

He will race prominently (probably second, behind Ballychorus), will travel and jump – and should trade a fair bit lower in running than his current 25/1.

He might even stay on well enough to snatch a place.
However if you want the winner, then I think Riverside City is the better bet…

0.25pt win Riverside City 16/1

The Troytown might be the big race on the card - but Douvan in the big horse…

Unbeaten over hurdles – and looking every inch a future champion – he makes his chasing debut today in the beginners chase at 2:10.

Assuming he jumps round cleanly, it should be a formality for him – but it will still be very exciting to see how he copes with the bigger obstacles.

There is a fascinating handicap hurdle off at 3:10, made all the more so because of the presence of the top class chaser, Foxrock.

Rated in the 160s over fences, he should take all the beating off a mark of 128 over hurdles – provided he’s fit.
However the expectation would be that this is just a prep run for a campaign over fences (and the betting seems to bear this out).

Roll it Out and Russian Bill are the 2 most obvious ones in the race – but the market has cottoned on to them.
At longer prices, I would be more interested in the hugely admirable Misty Lady – and our old friend Pencilhimin.

He won this very race last season - and whilst he is 5lb higher in the weights today, the booking of Donagh Myler effectively offsets most of that.

He is getting a bit long in the tooth – but sufficient ability remains for him to go close in this.
If you want to play it safe, a bit like Kylecrue, I would expect him to race prominently and travel well for most of the contest – so a pre race back, to lay in running, should minimise damage if he doesn’t quite get home.

Exeter

In the handicap chase at 1:30, I would have been very tempted to tip Key to the West, if I could have got a price.

On the back of a last time out fall – and with top weight in heavy ground, I was hopeful that he might have been overlooked a little in the betting.

If 4/1 had been available, I would have been interested – but 3/1 is plenty tight enough.

In fairness, he did looked an improved horse on his penultimate run (his first for new connections), so in a race where it is difficult to summon up much enthusiasm for any of the other runners, his price is maybe understandable.

The following novice chase (2:00), is probably the best race being run on UK soil this afternoon.

If you asked me to pick the most likely winner, I would go with Fletchers Flyer – but in a hot race, first time over fences, he represents absolutely no value at the current 5/4.

If you could guarantee his fitness, Kayf Moss would be an excellent bet at 10/1 – but his fitness would have to be taken on trust (and he doesn’t have a great record when fresh).

The other one of potential interest, is Rolling Maul.

He didn’t cover himself with glory on his chasing debut – but he has at least had a run.

And whilst he wasn’t quite the equal of some of these over hurdles, he wasn’t far behind – and he will act in todays conditions.

It certainly wouldn’t surprise me hugely if he outran his current price of 20/1.

Uttoxeter

Venetia’s King of Glory, looks the one to beat in the handicap chase at 2:50.

He will be well suited by todays trip and the ground – and is well enough handicapped.

The niggling concern with him however, is that he hasn’t won yet…
He seemed to have a glorious opportunity in his seasonal debut at Wincanton - but disappointed.

That was the third time in a row, he had been a beaten favourite – which is concerning.
Maybe he needed the run that day – but that would be unusual for one of Venetia’s.
He could be worth giving a final chance to – but a best price of 5/2 doesn’t really draw you in…

Finally, in the handicap hurdle at 3:20, I am quite taken by Pure Science.
There is no doubt he has a lot of natural ability – but equally no doubt that he’s not always able to utilise it effectively.

His previous trainer, Nigel Twiston Davies, managed to get a few wins out of him – but you were always left with the feeling that here could have been a whole lot more

He’s now under the care of Sue Smith – and he showed significant promise on his debut for her at Sedgefield a couple of weeks ago.

To my mind, he’s potentially got a stone in hand of his current mark – so in conditions he will relish, he has to be of some interest.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.