Daily write-up - Nov 21st

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

I did have a quick look at both the Huntingdon and Gowran cards – and briefly thought I might been interested in one at Huntingdon.

However, I’ve cooled on it – and decided to just focus on the days 2 big meetings…

The good thing about both Ascot and Haydock, is that as they were racing there yesterday, we should have a reasonable feel for the ground.

I think my assumptions yesterday were about right: it was just on the soft side of good at Ascot: and somewhere between soft and heavy at Haydock.

Whilst both meetings put on decent cards, it has to be said that the main events of the day are disappointing (certainly in terms of numbers).

The 4 main events being run across the 2 cards, have managed to attract just 20 runners in total (and a few of those have no realistic chance).

Yes it will be great to see the likes of Vatour and Silviniaco Conti – but it would be even better to see competitive races.

Anyway, things are as they are.
The supporting races on both cards are good – and I have a view on most of them.

However, they are all tricky affairs and margins are tight – there is certainly no opportunity to repeat the spectacular successes of last weekend.

It will be more a case of trying to eak out a profit – and hopefully, I’ve found a few capable of doing that…

Haydock

12:10

I’m pretty keen on the chances of Baby King in this…

True he’s making his seasonal debut – so his fitness needs to be taken on trust – but he’s run well twice on his seasonal debut in the past, so I don’t think it will be an issue.

Furthermore, he’s the only horse that Tom George sends to Haydock this afternoon – so you would hope he would be ready to go.

If he is, then I think he will take a lot of beating.

In truth, it is difficult to categorically say he is well handicapped – but I think he is.
He was a beaten fav first time out last season at Exeter.

He actually fell at the last that day, but looked held by Dormello Mo.

However, he was running at levels weights against that horse – and if they were to meet today, Dormello Mo would have to give him 24lb ! With the benefit of hindsight, Baby King clearly did well to run him so close.

Whilst he ran OK in his remaining races last season, I don’t think Baby King ever really did himself justice.

However as a result of that, he is now rated 5lb lower than he was a the start of his last campaign – and I suspect he can do some damage off todays mark.

The other one I want on side in the race, is De Boitron…

He finished second in this race 12 months ago – and gets in off a 10lb lower mark day.
There is absolutely no doubt that he’s an exceptionally well handicapped horse - the only question is when he will strike.

I think it will be on decent ground over fences – not on soft over hurdles – but if he were to win today, I would never forgive myself for not saving on him.

Hopefully Baby King will have his measure though…

0.375pt win Baby King 4/1

0.125pt win De Boitron 6/1 

3:35

I can see this turning into a war of attrition…

The final race of a 2 day meeting run on heavy ground – it will be like ploughing through the Somme !

It won’t be for the faint hearted, that’s for sure and Theatrical Star is a horse, well capable of toughing things out.

He certainly showed himself up for a battle on a couple of occasions, last season.
Firstly when just beaten in the Classic chase at Warwick – and then when again finishing second to Le Reve at Sandown.
Both of those races were run on soft ground and Theatrical Storm showed himself well suited by such conditions.

His two runs this season haven’t been quite so good however.

In fairness there was little wrong with his seasonal debut when he finished fifth at Cheltenham – however, his run in the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton a fortnight ago, was disappointing.
We have to be prepared to ignore that – but it’s interesting to see that a tongue tie and cheek pieces have been enlisted on the back of it.

Clearly connections think he needs a bit of shaking up – and I think that is fair enough.

He will be 10 in the new year and could easily be that he is becoming a bit lazy in his old age…

I find it quite interesting that Brendan Powell is prepared to drive from Huntingdon to Haydock during the afternoon, to partner him – you have to think that he must fancy his chances in order to be doing that.

In terms of dangers, then Toby Lerone and Royal Palladium are the obvious ones – but they are first and second favs.

I would also be fearful of Straidnahana if the money came – he is one that it is very difficult to get a proper handle on.

This said, I do like the chances of Theatrical Star – who should be more capable of handling conditions than most and is now handicapped to go very close indeed.

0.375pt win Theatrical Star 12/1

There is a marathon chase run at 12:40 – but it just looks too difficult to call..

I was initially drawn to Sybarite, who I think will be well suited to todays conditions.

However his jumping is very ponderous – and I do wonder if he might get too far behind.

Next up for consideration was Copper Birch – and whilst the will love conditions and has a feather weight – I’m just not sure he is up to this class.

No Deal could easily be the one – but he’s favourite and making his seasonal debut.

I could give half chance to both Lackamon and Harry the Viking – and couldn’t completely dismiss Goodtoknow !

I’m not that keen on our old (and very dear) friend, Emperors Choice (I think he will need the run): whilst Buachaill Alainn seems poorly handicapped and King of the Wolds will likely find this too much.

3 out of the equation – but 6 still in.

That just doesn’t give me quite the edge I need to commit to anything…

Another very tricky contest.

I was obviously drawn initially to Vendor – who I felt should probably have won last Saturday (under different tactics).

He got 3lb for that run – but it wouldn’t put me off – in the right race…

The trouble is, todays contest looks much hotter than last Saturdays (it’s a grade higher) – and yet he can only be backed at the same price…

That said, I would be prepared to take on a couple of his better fancied rivals:

I don’t think Hunters Hoof will like the ground; whilst I suspect Stiletto is being prepped for his chasing career.

However, that still leaves Rock the Casbah and Avidity – both of whom I could be fearful of  - plus Gunner Fifteen…

He’s the real stumbling block, as he could be much better than his mark.

The interesting thing however, is that he will set off and try and make all – and first time out on todays ground, he might struggle to get home.

This will mean that Vendor will almost certainly be ridden with more restraint.

I think this will give him a better chance of winning – and it also means he will probably be available at a bigger price in running.

If he’s near the back and settled, at a double figure price, inside the first half mile, I would take a risk.

Ofcourse, Gunner Fifteen may never come back to the field – and that is a possibility.
But I’ll be surprised in the scenario described, if Vendor isn’t running on late - and he could well go very close.

The betting suggests that the Betfair price rush hurdle should be between Irving and Top Notch.

However on todays ground, with the benefit of a run under his belt, I would much prefer the chances of the older Irving.
In fact, I could see Top Notch struggling today – and a reverse forecast of Irving and Melodic Rendezvous would be the way I would play the race.

If the ground is truly bottom-less, I wouldn’t put it past Melodic Rendezvous getting his revenge on his old rival.

Certainly at 7/1, he might be worth a small risk.

The fixed brush final at 2:25 looks a minefield…

I could probably pick 6 in the race and still not be confident of having the winner.

For what it’s worth, my short list consisted of Tea for Two, Our Kaempfer, Definitly Red, Baradari, Yala Enki – and Bold Sir Brian…

The last named is hugely speculative – but he has the natural ability to win this, if right – and is a 40/1 shot !

Finally, the Betfair chase is a big disappointment…

Silviniaco Conti should beat Cue Card, with Dynaste third, Ballynagour fourth and Holywell pulled up.

If you can find anyone prepared to take a bet on the quad cast, you could have an angle

Ascot

1:30

Altesse de Guye was major eye catcher last time out, on her seasonal debut at Chepstow.

She travelled like a dream through that race and looked sure to win when cantering into the lead at the second last.
However, I don’t know whether it was the trip, the ground or the fact it was her seasonal debut – but she didn’t quite get home that day and ultimately finished fourth.

It was still a mighty run – and made her one very much to be interested in, next time out.

She got a 1lb rise for her troubles – but that will be more than offset by the claim of her jockey, and over a trip 2 furlongs shorter, she looks sure to run her race.

The reason I’ve covered her with a place bet today, is simply because it is impossible to get a proper  handle on the opposition.
I’m very comfortable with Altesse de Guye, but a number of her rivals are making their handicap debuts and so you can’t really work out whether or not they are well treated.

Smart Talk and Kilty Caul fall into that category: whilst I could also see Midnight Belle and Gabriella Rose running well.
That said, I will be very surprised if Altesse De Guye runs her race and finds 3 of todays field better than her.
My expectations are quite high

0.25pt win, 0.125pt place Altesse de Guye 9/1

It was disappointing to see Turn Over Sivola withdrawn from the 3:15 race, as I felt he had a good chance (and an excellent chance of being placed).

If I could be sure he would jump round cleanly, I would be prepared to give Dunraven Storm another chance.

He should get the quick ground he needs – plus a right handed track.

However, his jumping can be decidedly hairy - so he’s not one for the faint hearted !

That said, I could see the race being run to suit, with My Brother Sylvest and Arkaim, ensuring a strong pace.

Cold March and Dresden will both have their work cut out to defy career high marks following impressive last time out wins – though I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of them doing so.

Fargo is theoretically interesting – but seems a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse: and whilst Crown Theatre has little appeal from a handicapping perspective, the very fact Henry de Bromhead sends him over, makes him of significant interest.

If you do want to play, my suggestion would be Dunraven Storm – but keep you eyes closed !

In the novice chase at 12:55, I was initially interested in Astigos – but I was in good company !

He shortened in to 3/1 (from an initial 9/2) – but is now back on the drift…

In truth, I don’t see much of a margin in that kind of price – and if Parish Business can jump round cleanly, he could be too quick for him.
That said, Parish Business jumping round cleanly is no formality…

It will be great to see Vatour in the Stella Artois chase at 2:05 – but he’s impossible to back and can’t be opposed.

The race is his to lose: if he is fit and jumps round without issue, he will win.

It’s as simple as that.
If you want to guess that he’s not fit or won’t jump round cleanly, then fair enough !

Finally, Rock on Ruby or Brother Ted ? - that is the question…

With the ground riding quick, Rock on Ruby should have no excuses, and if Barry gets his fraction right, he will take some passing.

If he gets them wrong, then Brother Ted will likely take advantage.

If he gets them really wrong (ie. goes much too fast), Court Minstrel has enough ability to pick up the pieces.

In truth, it’s guess work – so I think I’ll just watch !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.