Daily write-up - Nov 18th

The abandonment of Hexham, means there are just 3 NH meetings today: at Chepstow and Warwick in the UK – and Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Following a very quite start to the week, I was hoping that things would pick up today – and they have, but only a little…

The meeting at Warwick is a big disappointment - and I really can’t see any opportunities there.

Chepstow on the other hand, is not bad – but the value seekers were out in force yesterday evening, and we are just left with the scraps this morning.

Ofcourse, it’s a familiar story – and why it is so refreshing when we get a few days like last weekend

We need to be making the most of those…

I would be interested to know if any of you managed to secure a decent price on Big Society…

As I see it, one of the benefits of the service, is that it marks your card in advance of the races (if you log away the nuggets from the write-ups & reviews).

Obviously we were on Big Society last time, when he as subject to a plunge.

Things went wrong for him that day – but he is out again today, off a 7lb lower mark – and with the blinkers removed.

Anyone paying attention, should have been interested in the 14/1 and 12/1 general quotes available last night – the question is, did anyone get involved ?

Pre-season, I said to the Info guys that this was an area, which I think is open to exploitation.
Clearly I can’t tip a horse like him the following morning, when the price had halved and these is a lot of uncertainty – but it doesn’t mean that one of you can’t take an early risk on him…

Anyway, I asked the question on todays thread on the forum – so I’ll be interested if anyone can answer in the affirmative…

On to a few brief thoughts on the day, then…

Chepstow

In the handicap hurdle at 1:55, I was moderately interested in Sunshine Buddy.

I was actually quite keen on her last time, when she ran at Towcester, but she ran a nothing kind of race.

That said, she is a pound lower in the weights today, is running over half a mile shorter (which may be more suitable) – and now has the benefit of a debut run under her belt.
She also has the assistance of up and coming amateur, David Noonan (who is very good value for his 7lb claim).

All those things taken in to consideration, I think she sets the standard in the race - though whether she warrants being as low as 11/4, is a different matter.

If I had seen a bit more in her Towcester run, I might have been tempted (as it does look a poor race) – but she showed little.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing her - but she’s not tipping material at that price…

The most interesting race of the day, is the handicap chase at 2:30.

This sees Big Society trying to atone for his woeful showing, last time out at Exeter.
In fairness, that run was so bad, it is easily ignored (particularly as the blinkers have been dispensed with today).

Clearly he was very well fancied that day (backed from 14/1 early to 7/1 at the off, in a relatively strong event) – so the hope must be that he can leave that run behind.

My main concern is that even if he does, he is facing some very interesting rivals today…

Theboyfromnowhere could literally be thrown in today, off a mark of 107 on his debut for Neil Mullholland – he also had David Noonan on top.

Saffran De Cotte is another who is potentially very well handicapped (and will love the ground). He has Dickie on board – and comes from a stable quite capable of landing a plunge.

Smart Ext, Brownville, Castarnie and Crack of Thunder are all also of potential interest – if you want to play it with a straight bat.

In short, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if any one of the seven won.

At 12/1 last night, Big Society was worth another speculative play: at 7/1 this morning, the theoretical value in him, is minimal…

The third race of interest on the Chepstow car, is the handicap chase at 3:30…

I’d narrowed this down to Toowoomba, Tolkeins Tango and Winston Churchill – however they now fill the top 3 places in the betting.
Worse than that, all 3 are making their seasonal debut, so fitness has to be taken on trust (and horses will need to be fit to get through Chepstow mud this afternoon !).

Of the 3, I would have a slight preference for Toowoomba and Tolkeins Tango – as the younger horses, from the bigger stables – but they are first and second fav.

I guess there may be a bit of value in Tolkiens at 4/1 – but only if he’s ready to do himself justice (and we are guessing on that).

Warwick

I am really disappointed by the Warwick card – from a betting perspective, anyway…

An impossible looking handicap hurdle, is followed by 4 novice events, a low grade handicap chase – and a bumper.
Non of the races really lending themselves to forming an information based opinion.

The most interesting of the novice events is the chase at 2:20.
Unfortunately it only has 4 runners – and whilst I would expect the two 4 years old in the field to dominate, so would the betting.

It will be interesting to see if Bristol De Mai can boost the form of Garde La Victoire – though I don’t think Karezak will be a push over for him (assuming his jumping stands the test).

It’s all a bit of a shame really, as I thought Murrayana was a real eye catcher last time at Ludlow, but I think he is likely to be outclassed this afternoon.

Fairyhouse

There’s nothing much doing at Fairyhouse either…

I did have a fancy in the handicap hurdle at 2:10 (Kansas City Chief) – but it’s now a NR, so that will have to wait for another day.

The only other race I spent any time on, was the handicap chase at 3:15.

Unfortunately, the one I am drawn to is the favourite, On the Shannon.

I thought of giving him a positive mention last time out – but as he was making his seasonal debut then, I expected him to need the run.
That proved not to be the case and he came home a gusty winner.

He only got 5lb for that win - and gets Katy Walsh on board today.

I think he should take the beating – but there is minimal juice in a price of 5/2.

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.