Daily write-up - Nov 2nd

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Kempton, Ludlow and Plumpton.

And for a Monday, there is some really interesting racing.

Certainly I can’t ever recall seeing the reigning King George winner strutting his stuff on this particular day of the week (unless it was a Boxing day, a few years back !).

When I first looked at the days racing, I was sure I would be able to find a tip or two.

But the more I looked, the more trappy it all appeared.

It’s not that I don’t have views on many of the races - I do.

It’s just that I can see dangers to all of the horses I fancy – and the odds aren’t there to warrant taking a chance.

Anyway, I’ll summarise my thoughts below – and formalise a few mentions – and leave you guys to act on things, as you deem appropriate.

As there are no tips today – there will be no review - so the next you will hear from me, will be first thing tomorrow…

Kempton

The first race in which I expected to find a tip, was the novice handicap chase at 2:00.

I even had a horse in mind, in the shape of Parish Business.

He was a decent novice hurdler last season – but has experienced a stuttering start to his novice chasing campaign.

I would expect him to come good at some point this season – but I do wonder if his jumping technique might be found out by the tough Kempton fences.

In truth, even if it’s not, he’s no certainty to come home in front.

His is closely weighted with Port Melon on hurdles form – and that one has always looked like chaser in waiting.

Furthermore, there seems to be a lot of confidence behind Billy Merriot – and I’m not sure I want to be opposing a well fancied Harry Fry horse.

Even beyond those two, it’s a strong race:

Barry Gerraghty is over for 3 rides - and Dreamsoftheatre could well be the main one: whilst Urcalin and By the Boardwalk both have plenty of chasing experience - and set a decent standard.

In short, whilst I think Parish Business could win the race - I can see too many reasons not to get involved.

His price of 7/1 looks just about right, to me…

It’s fascinating to see Silviniaco Conti making his seasonal debut in the next race on the card…

Though this strikes me as an admission from Paul Nichols, that he can’t get the horse fit at home ! (if he could, he would surely have run him in the Charlie Hall chase on Saturday).

That being the case, do you want to take 5/2 on a horse who is going to come on for the run ?

Clearly he is well handicapped compared to his chase rating – but that could prove irrelevant.

However, even with him out of the reckoning, it’s a hard race to fathom.

There is money for Kayserberg – but I would fancy him least of the remaining 4.

I would make Brother Tedd the most likely winner but could also give a chance to both Low Key and Mister Fizz.

At 11/1, I guess Mister Fizz is the ‘value’ call – but whether he is actually up to winning, is a different matter…

Next up is a graduation chase – and again, it’s not an easy race to work out…

Smad Place is the best horse in the race on official ratings – but neither trip nor ground, is right for him.

Fingal Bay should be much better suited by both – and has a good record fresh – but whether he will be able to jump round Kempton, is a different matter…

Easter Day and Kings Lad are both likely to want softer ground – which leaves Horizontal Speed.
The trouble is, he is making his debut for a new trainer, so it’s difficult to know exactly what to expect.

If he’s well backed close to the off, I would be inclined to take note.

I can certainly understand the support for Adam De Breateau in the next race on the card (3:40).
I put him up in the forum a couple of weeks ago and he looked sure to win at Fontwell, until ploughing through the fourth last fence.
He’s running off the same mark today – and with Dickie Johnson replacing Richie McClernan in the saddle.

Now, as you know, I’m a big fan of Dickie.

But I wouldn’t say that presenting difficult horses at fences was his main strength.
Furthermore, Kempton will take whole lot more jumping round than Fontwell.

If Adam jumps round OK, he should win – but I would want even money on that happening…

Finally, I can’t even warrant making Thecorrupter an official mention in the 4:10.

However, I’m sure he’s got more ability than his current mark suggests – and the fitting of a first time hood, is interesting…

Ludlow

The handicap chase at 2:10 is another race where I expected to find a tip…

I initially thought that would be Last Shot, who has won over course and distance – and is now a well handicapped horse.

However, a couple of things put me off him…

Firstly, he appears to have been deserted by Aidan Colemen in favour of Yabadabado – who I don’t particularly fancy: and secondly, there is potentially a lot of pace in the race (and Last Shot likes to lead).

As a consequence, I switched my allegiance to Noche de Reyes – but he comes with risks – and 5/1 is no more than an adequate price…

On balance then, a race where I felt I couldn’t see enough of an angle to warrant getting heavily involved.

The next race on the card sees the reappearance of Here’s Herbie…

A lot of the guys in the forum , were on him when he got touched off last time out at Cheltenham.

He only got a 2lb rise for that run, which seems very fair to me - and todays race doesn’t look anywhere near as strong, so he has to go close…

I guess the worries are a couple of his opponents (particularly the Nicky Henderson trained Leaderofthedance) and the track (which is likely to be as sharp as he wants).

He might have been worth a shot at 5/1 – but I felt it was a borderline call.

A bit like Vision Des Champs yesterday, I could be wrong – but I’ll live with it if I am…

The 3:15 is a really poor race – and I’m sure Vent Nivernais should be able to take it.

However, he was woeful last time – and, TBH, I’m running out of excuses for him..

He tries blinkers for the first time today – and I guess they might buck him up, However he is also stepped up in trip – and I don’t like that combination.

He’s a definite back to lay in running proposition (as he will likely travel strongly) – but whether he gets home, is a completely different matter…

Finally, I was half interested in Chankillo in this – and he’s drifted out to a price where he may be worth a risk (5/1).
I’ve no idea why he’s not fancied by the market (conditions should be fine – and he is fit and well) – but that appears to be the case.

Certainly I wouldn’t put anyone off a small play on him at the current price, as the opposition he faces doesn’t look strong.

Plumpton

The Plumpton meeting is far more like what you expect to see on a Monday !

The only race of interest on the card, is the novice handicap chase at 2:55.

I’m not surprised to see The Cider Maker installed as favourite - and he will likely take the beating.

However, I was also interested in Winged Express, at nearly 3 times the price.

He comes from a stable close to my heart, in that of Alex Dunne.

Unfortunately he’s nearly impossible to get a proper handle on, so there would be a lot of guesswork involved.

I know that Neil has links to the stable so maybe he will be able to enlighten us a little, in the forum…

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Kempton 2:00 Parish Business (O )

Kempton 2:30 Mister Fizz (O )

Kempton 3:05 Horizontal Speed (S )

Kempton 3:40 Adam Du Breteau (P )

Ludlow 2:10 Noche De Reyes (O )

Ludlow 2:40 Here’s Herbie (P )

Ludlow 3:15 Vent Nivernais (S )

Ludlow 3:50 Chankillo (S )

Plumpton 2:55 WInged Express (S )