Daily write-up - Nov 1st

Day 1 of the 2015-16 TVB season.

We have 5 long months stretched out in front of us.

There will be highs: there will be lows. I’ll try to keep the roller-coaster to a minimum – but, to an extent, that’s the nature of the beast (and why we love it so !).

There are 4 NH meetings today: Carlisle and Huntingdon in the UK: plus Naas and Cork in Ireland. All very balanced then !

I’ve decided to ease us in, with just the one tip.

I could have had more – but they were all risky/borderline.

Plus it’s nice to open up the season with a few strong mentions 

I’ll post the tip and mentions on the forum, once I have issued them – and will be happy to field any questions (time permitting).

Here’s the rationale for the tip – plus my thoughts on some of the days other races…

Carlisle

2:35

Son of Suzie was a big eye catcher at this meeting last season. He was making his chasing debut that day and ran a cracker to finished second to Big Water in the novice chase, run earlier on the card.

Up in the van throughout, he only gave best to the winner after the last.
He looked sure to go on from that run, but it just didn’t happen.

Jumping errors cost him on his next 2 outings – and he was retuned to hurdles for the remainder of the season.

He ran well enough in his 3 subsequent outings in that discipline – placing on each occasion.

It is no surprise to see him returned to fences today – and no surprise that he return at Carlisle (where the fences are considered very fair).

It’s maybe a little surprising that he isn’t still running novice company – but I suspect connections don’t want to risk running into another similarly unexposed one…

Based on his run a year ago, Son of Suzie looks potentially well handicapped.

Big Water beat him 2 lengths off level weights – and is now rated 20lb higher: whilst Straidnahanna was beaten half a length, also off level weights - and is now rated 11lb higher.

In summary, Son of Suzie could easily have the best part of a stone in hand of his current mark.

And if that is the case – and his jumping holds up – he should win today.

In a field of mainly exposed chasers, it is unlikely that any of his rivals will have as much in hand of their mark.

In terms of dangers, then Donnie picked out a big one, in the shape of King of the Wolds – though as Dave said, the trip is a concern, particularly with his big weight.
That said, he will love the quick ground.

Last years winner, Ballyoliver, shouldn’t like the ground as much – however on a mark just 2lb higher than 12 months ago, his chance is there for all to see.

I would also be a little fearful of the top horse, Vintage Star – and the bottom horse, Basford Ben.

In short, this won’t be a cake walk – however, I am hopeful that Son of Suzie is sufficiently well handicapped to get the new season off to a great start !

0.5pt win Son of Suzie 7/1

There are some nice races on the Carlisle card, including this years running of the novice handicap chase, in which Son of Suzi ran last year…

It’s off at 1:30 and I did briefly consider taking a risk on the Mark Walford trained Shimla Dawn.

Walford and Jake Greenhall had a double at Ayr yesterday, so the stable is clearly in good form.

Shimla Dawn makes his fencing debut today after 11 months off the track.
However he ran very well last year on his seasonal debut after a similar absence.

His hurdling form is strong in the context of todays race  - but his handicap mark reflects that.

There could well be one or two more progressive sorts in the race, so whilst I think he sets the standard, it might be surpassable…

There is a big field assembled for the handicap hurdle at 3:10 – but I’m not sure it is quite as competitive as the numbers suggest.

A few of the runners are likely to be having an outing in order to get fit for a campaign over fences.

Vendor was the one who caught my eye on his first outing for Sue Smith. He looked like he was going to be very decent for Alan King – but it didn’t quite happen.

Looking through his form, it is interesting to see that when he won at Newbury, in November 2013, Shotavodak was back in second place.

That one is 8lb better off today, for a 2 length beating.

Furthermore, he’s not had the injury issues that have clearly plagued Vendor.
David Pipe sends Shotavodka on 650 mile round trip, to make his seasonal debut.
That got me interested  - however the lack of a tongue tie, the likelihood of quicker than ideal ground – and a relatively moderate first time out record, tempered that enthusiasm.

In truth, it was a borderline call - but even at 16/1, I decided to make Shotavdka a strong mention rather than a tip…

There is a fascinating match up between Saphir du Rheu and The Young Master at 3:45.

I’d make Saphir du Rheu favourite - but I’m not sure I’d make him a 1/4 shot.

That said, it’s still probably a watching race…

Huntingdon

Huntingdon stage a strange meeting…

It begins with 2 claiming hurdles and a juvenile hurdle (yawn).

Even the handicap chase is pretty poor fayre.

Then however, here are two cracking novice events: a hurdle and a chase.

In truth, with such a card, betting opportunities were always going to be limited – and as Carl guessed, there was only one horse I was ever interested in…

I was exceptionally keen on Vision Des Champs on his second outing last season at Newbury – but he let me down.

My enthusiasm was based on his performance in his previous race at Kempton, when he ran really well against the progressive Comeonginger.

However, with hindsight, there has to be a chance that I over rated that run.
Vision Des Champs has run twice more since Newbury - and whilst he ran OK, he didn’t show anything that made him look spectacularly well handicapped.

In truth, he might not need to be that well handicapped to win today – and if he has improved for his summer break, he could well win.
Certainly, Lord Lir should give him some pace to chase (which he needs) – and the other 3 runners look limited.

I guess I might regret choosing to leave him alone – but if missing a 3/1 winner is the worst thing that happens this season, I’ll reach April a happy man !!

So far as the 2 novice events on the card are concerned, then Barters Hill sets a very high standard in the hurdle at 2:55.
He was just about the best British bumper horse last season so it will be fascinating to see how he gets on over hurdles.

However, he faces no easy introduction to obstacles, with 2 or 3 serious rivals in opposition.
Hopefully he will come through OK – as it would be nice to see a relatively small stable (Ben  Case) with a decent horse.

The novice chase at 3:30 looks at even better contest.

Three Musketeers sets the standard, but Amore Alato, EL Namoose, Saffron Wells and Sametegal (in particular) are all potentially dangerous rivals.

There is too much guesswork involved to recommend a serious bet – but Amore Alato is a free running sort who is likely to be at his best first time out and could represent a bit of value at 12/1

Naas

The most intriguing race on the Naas card, is the handicap hurdle at 3:55, which sees Phil the Flyer going for his 4 timer.

Those who have been following the forum will know that I picked up on Phil a couple of runs ago when he won at Navan off a mark of 109.
Today he gets to run off a mark of 132…

Now it can’t be denied that he has earnt that hike in the ratings – but whether he is going to be able to get the better of the much stronger rivals he faces today, is a debatable point.

Roll it Out and Russian Bill, both catch my eye – and there are a number of others who could also be potent dangers, if fully wound up…

I wouldn’t put it past Phil to get up his 4 timer – but I don’t think there is much margin in the 6/1 quote.

In the 1:40 race, I will be very much looking forward to seeing Sizing Granite again.

He got the better of Arkle runner up Gods Own, in the 2 mile grade 1 novice chase at he Aintree Grand National meeting – and there is a chance he’ll make up into a genuine Queen Mother contender this season.

Ofcourse he really needs to win today, if that has any chance of materialising – but whilst Alelchi Inois is likely to be a tough rival to beat, I’m optimistic that he will be able to do just that…

Cork

The big race on the card, is the Cork Grand National, off at 3:35

The betting thinks that JP has a decent chance of winning this and I would agree – though via a different horse !

King Leon is the 6/1 joint fav – and Sword Fish 7/1. I think both have fair chances – but the one that really catches my eye, is Riverside City…

He was an ultra game winner of the Ulster National 4 runs ago and whilst he’s been a bit disappointing since, he gets to run off a mark just 7lb higher today.
Furthermore, the booking of decent apprentice Jack Kennedy, means that he will effectively only be carrying 2lb more this afternoon.

One concern I do have, is the state of the ground. He is a horse who really would prefer quick ground (and the current forecast is soft).
He’s also a bit of an in and out performer – so probably not one for someone who wants to know they will get a run for their money !
That said, I think he has the ability, the handicap mark and the connections to just about win this.

Maybe I should have taken a risk at 16/1 – I’m sure a few of you will (particularly if the going isn’t riding too slow)…

Talking of the Grand National, my long term fancy, Gonyella gets a first outing of the season in the novice hurdle at 1:55.

It will certainly be interesting to see whether his connections intend to keep him over hurdles, until the weights for the big race are published in February.

So far as todays concerned, then he’s been installed an even money favourite – a price that has very limited appeal…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Carlisle 2:35 Son of Suzie 0.5pt win 7/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Carlisle 2:30 Shimla Dawn (O )

Carlisle 3:10 Shotavodka (C )

Huntingdon 2:20 Vision Des Champs (P )

Huntingdon 3:30 Amore Alato (S )

Naas 3:55 Phil the Flyer (O )

Cork 3:35 Riverside City (C )