Daily write-up - Nov 5th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Towcester, Market Rasen and Musselburgh in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland…

I do find this a strange game, sometimes…

On my first scan through todays cards (yesterday afternoon), I could see absolutely nothing of interest: on my second look, things hadn’t improved a great deal – so much so, that  I nearly sent out a note last night saying ‘no bets today’.

Instead I spent a bit more time – and slowly, a few interesting angles started to appear…

Now don’t get me wrong, it was never going to be a day bursting full of opportunities – but with a following wind, I think we could have ended up with at least a couple of tips.

Unfortunately, a combination of market strength – and uncertain weather has stopped them materialising – but at least I’ve got a few interesting mentions !!

That should be good for the Info guys, in particular – and it was really nice to see a few of you responding to my request yesterday – and getting active in the forum.

It’s always good to see some ‘new’ faces in there – and whilst I’m sure many of you don’t feel you can contribute much – just a slightly different perspective on things can be useful – plus I think it helps the regular contributors to know that they have got an ‘audience’.

Hopefully that trend will continue…

On to today then - and my thoughts on a handful of the races…

Towcester

I did briefly think abort tipping Sunshine Buddy in this (and I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small bet on her).

She won on her seasonal debut last season, at Chepstow – and gets to run off a mark just 1lb higher today.

It’s difficult to know why that is, as she was pretty consistent last season.

I guess the big issue with her, is a lack of potential.

My feeling is that she sets the standard for the race – but there are 2 or 3 in there who might be capable of surpassing it.

I guess that makes her a fair EW bet – but at best odds of 10/1, the upside is limited…

She may drift a little near the off –and that wouldn’t put me off.

Certainly one to bear in mind – even if not one to go mad on…

Malibu Sun is one I could have gone mad on – in the right circumstances.

On genuinely good ground (and I’ve no idea what the Towcester ground will actually be), I think he is a cast iron EW bet to nothing.

I actually think there would be a very good chance he could win the race (as he did last year) – though there are 2 or 3 unexposed sort lurking – and it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if one of them proved too good for him.

Specifically, I would be afraid of Great Choice, Arthur McBride and Red Tortue – in that order…

If the early 6/1 had been available at 8:30 – and – there was no chance of rain, Malibu Son would have been a maximum EW bet (0.5pt EW).

However, despite me not tipping it, the price started to evaporate early...

He was 5/1 best at 8:30 (still acceptable) – and 4/1 best as I write this.

That means you will lose a little, if he’s placed - which clearly isn’t ideal.
In truth, I would still take that chance on genuinely good ground – but with the chance the ground will turn soft, I’m just not  prepared to pull the trigger.

Clearly those of you who can bet later in the day, can reassess nearer the off and make a decision on what action to take then.
Hopefully I have provided you with sufficient guidance…

Market Rasen

Just the one race of interest here – the 2:15.

My initial fancy for the race was Midnight Cataria – who bounced back to form with a good run at Kempton last time.

I still think she should run well – but if the ground is genuinely soft, I think she might have to give best to Master Neo.

He’s a proper mud lark – who also likes Market Rasen. He ran well there on his seasonal debut – before falling early next time, at Uttoxeter.
Provided that’s had no lasting effect, he should go very close today.

This issue is the price – 11/4 is probably a bit shorter than I think he should be (and certainly too short to consider tipping).

Musselburgh

Again, just the one race of interest – the novice handicap chase at 1:30.

This looks a weak contest – and The Cobbler Swayne stands out on his chasing debut.

He was in process of running a big race over hurdles last time, when he was unluckily brought down.
He switches to fences today - but as  a PTP winner in his native Ireland, that could actually result in some improvement.

Against weak looking opposition, I don’t think 9/4 is a bad price.
It just feels too short to be taking about a horse making it’s chasing debut – particularly one that didn’t’ manage to complete last time.
All the same, I expect him to win…

Thurles

Finally the handicap hurdle at 3:45 is the race that caught my attention on the Thurles card.

It has a massive field of 19 – but as I was saying to Paul in the forum yesterday, I don’t think field size should be an issue – it’s the number of horses in with a chance that counts.

Unfortunately, it’s not easy to be categoric on that score in this particular race - though I suspect I could name 7 or 8, and be 90% confident of finding the winner…

Consequently, 9/1 about my main fancy for the race, Redwood Boy, might not be a bad bet.

He ran really well last time out on  his second run for Denis Hogan – and Hogan himself takes over in the saddle today (always an interesting move).

In truth Redwood Boy shouldn’t beat The Drunken Dr on last time out form – but that one has a very poor win record – and looks just the type to bounce.

You could maybe cover stakes on him if you are that way inclined, but I’ll probably stick to just the main fancy in the race: Redwood Boy.

Here’s hoping you have a great day – if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Towcester 12:50 Sunshine Buddy (O )

Towcester 2:25 Malibu Son (C )

Market Rasen 2:15 Master Neo (P )

Musselburgh 1:30 The Cobbler Swayne (P )

Thurles 3:45 Redwood Boy (O )