Daily write-up - Nov 11th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Ayr, Bangor and Exeter.

We maybe be 10 days into the season – but I almost feel like it starts today…

I still have a few concerns regarding the going at Exeter and Bangor – but not so much at Ayr – and I was tempted to really let rip there !

However, me being me, ‘letting rip’ has ended up as half a point on a 3/1 shot !

But that’s by the by - things felt different !!

I could easily have staked over 2pts on today racing – but caution has got he better of me.
Needless to say, you need to be keeping a close eye on the mentions...

Talking of which, as I said in the forum, I’m going to drop the daily advice summary, from today.

I acknowledge it probably does have a little value in terms of the Tips – but I actually feel it is in danger of being misleading for the Mentions…

It’s never been my intention to create a ‘shopping  list’ of mentions – but that’s exactly what I do !

Clearly, if I felt they should all be backed – they would all be tips – but I don’t.

Only by reading the rationale will you understand my issue with a particular Mention.

Backing it without that understanding will likely lead to losses (as I’ve said many times in the past).

If you don’t have the time to read the write-up on a particular day, my suggestion is that you don’t back the Mentions.

The tips are obviously a different matter – but even then, you need to be price sensitive, if you are following them blindly.

Anyway, enough of the ramble – and onto the action !

Ayr

1:50

I’m very keen on Tantamount is this…

He last ran a couple of weeks ago at Aintree, in a conditional jockeys race.

That race was dominated by a couple of potentially highly progressive young stayers, in the shape of Sykes and optimistic Bias.

They dead heated for first in the race - but Tantamount was only 3 lengths behind them in third place.

An indication of the quality of the form, is the fact that the fourth horse was a full 16 lengths further back – and never really featured.

My suspicion is that the first 3 are very decent.
Sykes has already come out and won a fair race at Chepstow, to back this up – and Tantamount gets to run off a mark just 2lb higher today.

Whilst the handicapper couldn’t really give him any more – I don’t think it is enough.

He’s dropping back half a mile in trip today – but that shouldn’t be a problem – and he should have no issue with the ground (he’s effective on good and soft).

Todays race is actually a class lower than he competed in last time – which is quite significant - and to be honest, I’m struggling to see what’s going to give him a race…

Top weight, Glacial Rock, is probably the one that I’m most wary of – but he’s a 9 year old who’s returning to the track after his summer break.

You always have to be a little wary of a Gordon Elliot runner – and I guess there could be something that could show massively improved form – but really…?!

The good thing about the race, is that there is 12 runners – and Tantamount isn’t obviously well in. Consequently, his price really can only go so low…

I reckon he is a 2/1 shot – at best – and will be very disappointed if he’s beaten.

Needless to say, I’ve under staked him – but what do you do at 8:30 in the morning in a relatively small race ?
I hope a few of you read the subtle signs and staked him more appropriately ;)

0.5pt win Tantamount 3/1

I reckon it could turn into a bit of a benefit afternoon for Lucinda Russell at Ayr…

The 2:20 race looks to be between her Mumgos Debut and the favourite, What a Dream.

Mumgos was 7/2 last night – and he was arguably worth a risk at that price.

However, he’s 5/2 now, which is probably about right – bearing in mind he’s clearly not the most robust of horses.
That said, I suspect he will be at his best today – and I suspect his best will be good enough to win.

In the next race on the card, we could to see the completion of Lucinda hatrick, via Final Assault.

He’s one I really did want to tip today – but I wanted 2/1 and he never got bigger than 7/4.

He only faces 5 rivals today – but unlike Tantamounts race, I can work up a bit of enthusiasm for at least 3 of them…

I still think he will be too good for them (because I think he’s a potentially decent horse) – but 7/4, when you can see 3 dangers in the race, is not a ‘value’ bet.

I therefore reluctantly had to let him pass – even though I’ve put him in doubles and trebles with the other 2 Lucinda horses…

Bangor

2:00

There seems to be a little uncertainty over the state of the ground at Bangor, but I’m assuming it is soft – and if it is, I think Cloudy Too will run a very big race…

He is certainly a potential well handicapped horse, as his win off a mark of 148, 2 years ago demonstrates (he runs off 145 today).

He actually followed that up by running second in a grade 1 chase at Ascot – before unseating in the 2014 Gold Cup.

In terms of back class, he has plenty…

Ofcourse, it’s never all about back class - it’s about what a horse can do today – and that’s not as easy to be categoric about.
Cloudy Too only race twice last season – and never featured on either occasion. However, as a result his handicap mark dropped by 11lbs.

Today will tell whether that was generous.

He had a warm up run for this race over hurdles at Wetherby, a couple of weeks ago, but was well beaten.

That was no surprise however as the race was over 2 miles and was clearly designed just to blow away the cobwebs.
He should be cherry ripe today – and provided the ground is indeed soft, he will have no issue with conditions.

There is a chance that he might have an issue giving a lot of weight to some younger horses (though he is only 9 himself) – but that’s a risk I’m prepared to take.

Of the others, then I would have been very tempted by What a Good Night, if the ground had been quicker: whilst I can see the attraction of Algernon Pazham (though I do wonder if the 3 mile trip might stretch him a little).

I’m happy enough taking on all of the others, however – assuming Cloudy Too is on top form.

If that is the case, then even the 2 mentioned, will have to be good to beat him.

0.25pt win Cloudy Too 9/1

The opening handicap chase on the card, looks likely to go to one of the market leaders…

I can see the case for Take the Crown and Trapper Peak, but if Uhlan Bute manages to return to form, he cooed be much too good for them both.

Rated as high as 127 over hurdles, he runs off a mark of just 109 today.

He will have no issue with under foot conditions – and if anyone can coax a horse back to form, it’s Venetia.

7/2 is a perfectly fair price (acknowledging the risks and dangers) – and Uhlan Bute is very much one to be interested in…

In the next race on the card, I was initially drawn to Venetia’s John Louis – but on a closer look, my enthusiasm for him diminished…

I’d give him a chance - but it looks like a race where one of the unexposed sorts might come to the fore..

Sir Pitt and Troika Steps, fall into that category – and could both be of some interest (particularly the former, who has been well backed).
That said, it’s a trappy race – and one I am happy enough to leave alone.

In the handicap hurdle at 3:00, I could have been interested in Foxclub – if the ground was a bit better.

Certainly on decent ground, with 8 in the race, he would have looked like an EW bet to nothing.

However, with the ground appearing to be soft – and a NR in the race – it’s easy enough to move on..

Exeter

There’s a fascinating novice handicap chase at 1:40, where I will be keeping a close eye on the giant Krackatoa King.

If ever the comment ‘everything he does over hurdles is a bonus’ was appropriate for a horse, it his him !
That said, He will doubtless need his first run – and 3 miles may not even be far enough !

Onderun was potentially interesting for the bang in form Emma Lavelle – but so is Cloudy Copper – and a couple others as well.

On balance, another watching race…

Finally, Sirop de Menthe could be an interesting alternative to the favourite Pull The Chord in the handicap hurdle at 3:10.

The very soft ground should suit him better than the good ground that he made his seasonal debut on and he’s probably reasonably handicapped.

5/1 is a fair – if unspectacular  - price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.