Daily write-up - Nov 13th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham and Hexham.

Day 1 of Cheltenham’s Open meeting – and rain is in the air….

The way this season has gone so far, I guess there is no surprise there – so we’ll have to ‘embrace the uncertainty’ !

The official ground description is ‘good to soft’ (7.1 on the going stick) but with the rain forecast, it could easily be soft by the end of tomorrow - or not !

We’ll just have to keep our fingers crossed…

All of todays selections would be helped by a bit of rain – so I’m kind of hoping the heavens do open (sorry Liam and Paul !).

If it doesn’t materialise however, I’m pretty confident the ground won’t be so quick that it causes much of an issue (it never is at Cheltenham, nowadays).

Here’s the rationale for the days tips – plus my thoughts on the other races on the card…

1:05

You can’t help but feel that the Pipes have lined up La Vaticane for this…

A totally unexposed ex French mare, she has only run once before in the UK.
That was at the back end of last season, when she ran a highly respectable second to Theinval, over hurdles at Kempton.

That showed she has real ability – but was probably only the tip of the ice berg.
She got an 8lb rise for that run – but that was fair enough. My suspicion is that she is much better than her current rating of 136.

The big question is how she will handle the Cheltenham fences.
She has only run once over fences before in her native France.
She won that day – but the French fences are very different to the British ones.

You can brush through the top of French fences, if she tries that this afternoon, I suspect the Cheltenham fences will say ‘Non !’ in no uncertain terms !

That said, I would expect her to have been thoroughly schooled by the Pipes – so I’m optimistic it won’t be an issue.

Her price is interesting: the race was priced up a few days ago and I suspect connections backed her then (at the time, she was also declared for tomorrows Paddy Power Gold Cup).
As a consequence, she opened quite short last night (because that was where the early money had put her), but is drifting this morning.

I suspect she will only drift so far – but 4/1 should be achievable.

If she jumps round cleanly, I think she will take all the beating…

The other one I want on side in the race, is Keel Haul.

He is much more conventional: a second season chaser, who had some good form over the minimum trip last season.

His defeat of Cold March and Croco Bay at Wincanton last February looks particularly strong form – and following a couple of under par runs over further, he gets to run off a mark just 3lb higher this afternoon.

He ran well enough in his pipe opener over 2m4f at Stratford a couple of weeks ago – and it’s interesting to see that the cheek pieces which were deployed successfully at Wincanton, are reapplied this afternoon.

I think he ticks a lot of boxes – and expect him to run well.

25/1 just struck me as too big a price – and worthy of a small EW interest…

For completion, the others on my short list were: Lough Kent (will need to improve for fences - but might); Minella Present (I would worry about his jumping); Key to the West (potentially very well handicapped – but could need further and softer) – and Pearl Legend (ticks most boxes – and should run a decent race).

0.25pt win La Vaticane 4/1

0.125pt EW Keel Haul 25/1

1:40

An absolute cracker jack of a novice chase – but impossible to call, with any confidence…

Former World Hurdle winner, More of That, has the potential to be top class over fences; and whilst Mite Bite didn’t reach the same dizzy heights over hurdles, he still showed very decent form – with the promise of much more over the bigger obstacles.

Either one could ultimately prove to be from the top drawer.

As De Mee and Ballyton don’t have quite as much potential – but they still could turn out to be high class chasers.

Dell ‘Arca has already had his limitations exposed – and of the main 6, I would be a little disappointed if he were good enough to win.

If I were to have a bet in the race, it would probably be on the Tom George trained, Double Shuffle.

He has exceeded expectations every time he has set foot on a race course – and I think he might do the same again today.

That said, there is still a possibility that he could run out of his skin and only finish third or fourth !

Truly a race to savour…

2:15

Another impossible to solve race – though I have a feeling that jockeyship might play a big part…

Penglai Pavillion and Alcala, both like to be held up – meaning that there is a chance that either Shantou Village or Champers on Ice, could steal the race…

Both have shown themselves willing to race prominently – without demonstrating a need to lead.

Champers on Ice is making his hurdling debut – which complicates things further with him.

That said, I wouldn’t be massively surprised if Tom Scudamore did try and dictate the pace.

Certainly, if he is able to race at his own speed, his jumping is less likely to be put under pressure.

That said, if I were to play in the race, I would be more inclined to go with Shantou Village.

He has the hurdling experience – and I’m a big fan of Noel Fehily.

He is also twice the price of Champers on Ice.

All this said, when a race becomes tactical, almost anything can happen – so a play on the outsider, Alcala, might not be a bad move…

All in all, just too difficult to call.

2:50

I have to be honest, I was hoping that Josies Order wouldn’t be quite so well picked up in this race…

He was on my radar all last season, when trained by Jonjo – but he never fired and moved to Enda Bolger at the end of the campaign.

A win in one of the banks races at the Punchestown festival suggested Enda had relit the fire – and off a feather weight, he looks of definite interest.

I had hoped for 8/1 – though might well have accepted 6/1 – but 4/1 is just too short..

Save your stake on him, by all means – but in a race like the cross country chase, anything can happen and I just can’t accept 4/1 for a decent bet…

Instead, I’m taking a risk on Bless the Wings.

He’s never run over the cross country course before – which is where the risk is – because if this race were being run on the conventional course I would be very keen on him…

He ran second in the Kim Muir at last seasons festival, finishing with a real flourish.

He gets to run off a mark 3lb lower today – so is undoubtedly well handicapped.

More than that, he caught my eye last time out, when travelling really well in the Cork National.
I don’t think he appreciated the very soft ground that day – but he shouldn’t have an issue in that respect today.

Simply, if he does take to the course, I can’t see how he won’t run a very big race…

The other one I must point out in the race, is Valadom.
I’ve no idea what he’s doing running in the race – and I do find his presence, quite intriguing…

I was really taken by him when he won on his seasonal debut at Worcester – but then he followed that up with a really disappointing run at Bangor.

What I find strange, is that both of those races were over 2m4f – fully 1m2f less than he competes over today. He doesn’t look like a horse crying out for a trip either.

What’s more, he’s only 6 years old, so there is no reason to expect him to have the stamina required for todays test.

So why run him ?!?!

Like I say, I find it totally puzzling.
However, I’ve backed him pre-race – and I will look to lay off in running (as I suspect he will race prominently and jump well).

At least that way, I won’t be totally gutted if he does somehow manage to stay the trip…

0.25pt win Bless the Wings 16/1

3:25

A puzzle within a conundrum ! It’s races like this that make the Open meeting what it is…

There are at least half a dozen fascinating contenders - one or two of them will doubtless show huge improvement – but which ones, is a matter of guesswork (unless you are in the know !).

Clearly the Betfair Sports book odds compilers aren’t in the know: they put in A Hares Breath as a 25/1 shot in their opening show – a couple of hours later, he was 9/2,

Good job guys !

Ignoring the market move, then the most interesting horse in the race has to be, Dollar and a Dream…

Trained by Tony Martin, he is the only ride on the day for Ruby.

Now surely that’s a hint worth taking note of !

That said, there are at least half a dozen who look well capable of showing significant improvement…

Mon Successor, has his second run for Paul Nichols (first over hurdles), having shown a lot of promise at Wetherby (and with Harry Cobden in the saddle); Barraka De Thaix, was third in a grade 2 hurdle at this meeting, on his debut for the Pipes last seasons. After a couple of subsequently disappointing runs, he gets in today off a mark of just 125. If he recaptures his early form, that could prove very lenient…

In addition to the 4 named above, there is also Trendsetter, Galizzi, Adrakan and Ink Master to consider – and that’s ignoring Mystifiable (who won so impressively on his seasonal debut at Exeter) !

Clearly a race that can only be watched – though head on the block, it would be Dollar and a Dream for me: Ruby and Tony Martin tend not to mess about…

4:00

I’m quite keen on Foxbridge in this…

He is a horse that I tipped first time out last season, when he made his chasing debut in a fair contest at Leicester.

He had been off the course for 2 years prior to that run, but ran a decent race, travelling nicely and only tiring up the home straight.

I left him alone after that point – but that was a mistake !

He won his next 3 races – all of them attritional contests – and showed himself to be a tough, progressive horse.

He rose 20lb in the handicap as a result of those wins – but such a rise was merited and I think there might be more to come this season.

On his penultimate run of the campaign, he ran a really big race to finish fifth in the Midlands Grand National.

The 4 mile trip was a bit much for him there – but he travelled well enough to suggest there was mileage in his current mark.

A subsequent below par run at the Cheltenham Spring meeting was put down by many to the ground – but I suspect he’d just had enough for the season.

As a result of it, his handicap mark has been dropped 3lb however, so he gets to start the season on a mark just 2lb higher than the one he was on for his last victory.

His trainer, Nigel Twiston Davies, doesn’t have a great record at the Open meeting – but he’s thrown plenty of darts at it in the past (it’s his local course).

With just 2 runners today, it looks to me as if he’s adopting a more selective approach.

In a race where nothing appears to have an outstanding chance, Foxbridge strikes me as one with a very good chance – something that the market hasn’t fully latched on to…

0.25pt win/0.125pt place Foxbridge 15/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.