Aintree Day 3

Day 3 of the Aintree Grand National meeting – Grand National Day !

7mm of overnight rain (more than expected), has left the ground on the hurdles and National courses, described as ‘soft’.

As is always the case when there has been overnight rain, there is an element of guesswork as to how exactly it will ride.
However, I suspect it will now be softer than it was on Thursday – and it was pretty soft then !

Furthermore, there are more showers forecast for this afternoon, so I think it’s pretty safe to say it will be a soft ground National.

And that could make things interesting.

They always go a pace in the National – and in soft ground many of them simply won’t get home.

Expect lots of tired falls and pulled ups, in the final mile or so…

With that in mind, I suspect jockeyship will be key – along with luck (to avoid the likely carnage).

Let’s hope we get a bit, for a change !!

Aside from the National, the Aintree card is quite bizarre…

There are 6 other races: 3 have favourites priced up at 1/4, 1/7 and 1/4; whilst the other 3 are almost as impossible to sort out as the National itself !

Talk about the sublime and the ridiculous.

Punter friendly it is not !!

Anyway, here are my thoughts on all 7 races….

Aintree

1:45: JP McManus appears to have a very strong hand in this race.

Headed by race favourite, If in Doubt: with support from Squouateur, Join the Clan and At Fishers Cross.

If in Doubt was probably the unluckiest loser at the whole of the Cheltenham festival.

He was repeatedly baulked and denied a run in the Pertemps final - and was still only beaten a length at the line. Off a 4lb higher mark, he is clearly the one to beat.

Squouateur was probably the best backed horse at the festival.

Hammered into 9/4 favourite in a 24 runner handicap, he appeared not to handle the relatively quick ground. Todays softer surface should be more to his liking – and if he copes with step up in trip, he could well run a very big race.

Join the Clan was an official eye catcher at Cheltenham,

He led the field on the turn for home in the Pertemps – but didn’t quite get home.

Aiden Coleman replaces Patrick Crowley today – and that could make a difference.

However, whilst I expect him to run well, I’m not sure today will be his day.

At Fishers Cross is the potential fly in the ointment.

A proven grade 1 performer, he gets to run off a mark of just 148 today – and with a 5lb claimer in the saddle.

That makes him potentially very well handicapped.

He will have no issue with track or trip – and the Rebecca Curtis stable is now showing a bit of form.

The feeling is that the horse is probably in terminal decline – but at 25/1, it might be worth a small risk, just in the case !

Outside the JP quartet, I could have been interested in Long House Haul and Eshtiaal – if the rain hadn’t come.

Kings Palace is another one of interest. Again he comes with risks – but he is potentially very well handicapped, back over hurdles.

The final one worthy of a mention is Saddlers Encore.

He won well at Kempton before disappointing last time at Cheltenham.

The quick ground was offered as the excuse that day – so he should have no such issues today !

If Dickie was on board, I would be really interested in him – but Tom O’Brien rides, instead.

Maybe Dickie didn’t appreciate how much rain there was going to be !

Certainly, at a very big price (40/1), he is worth a tiny saver.

In summary, whilst I’m not sure which one will win – I do think there is a strong possibility the jockey will be sporting green and gold stripes !

2:25: The first of the days ‘good things’ runs in this, in the shape of Yorkhill – and to be honest, it takes some imagination to see him getting beaten.
He was a hugely impressive winner at Cheltenham, where he put the highly regarded Yanworth to the sword; and prior to that, he had been a convincing winner of the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle at Sandown.

The Sandown race took place in desperate conditions, so no matter how the soft the ground is today, it’s unlikely to cause him an issue.

Clearly he has 10 hurdles to negotiate, so nothing can be guaranteed – but if he gets round safely it will be a major shock if he doesn’t win.

The race for second place could be a little more interesting, though I quite strongly favour Bello Conti for that.

He finished fourth behind Yorkhill at Cheltenham and whilst he was well beaten, it was only the third race of his life.
I would expect him to improve significantly for that run and get closer to his conqueror today.
The straight forecast should pay around to 4/1 – and that’s probably not a bad bet…

3:00: If Yorkhill looks a good thing in the previous race, then I’m not sure how best to describe Douvan in this..!

Unbeaten in 8 races since moving to Ireland, he has been an imperious winner at the last 2 Cheltenham festivals – and does look like the sports next superstar in waiting.

The biggest problem is that he’s so good, he tends to frighten away most of the credible opposition, resulting in him having easer races that should be the case.

That’s probably true today – as he should really only need to jump round, in order to collect the £50K+ first prize.

Unlike the previous race, I don’t have a strong feeling about what will follow him home.

The Game Changer is probably the next most talented horse in the field – but he has a marked preference for decent ground.
That’s also the case with Fox Norton – who, despite that, will hopefully give Brian a good day out (and maybe a bit of place money !).

Alisier D’Irlande is probably the most interesting runner in the race – as he likes to go from the front.

He also likes soft ground, so there is a chance he could add a bit of interest to the race.

More likely however, Douvan will brush him aside: either early if he doesn’t tare off – or late, if he does !

Ballybolley completes the line-up – but he is really only a decent handicapper, so it’s difficult to make much of a case for him.

3:40: Thistlecrack is the third long odds-on shot to be running on the afternoon – and he looks the most vulnerable…

Ofcourse, that vulnerability is relative – he’s still more likely to win than he is to lose, but I can see a couple of potential chinks in his armour…

Firstly, he’s had quite a long season – and has consistently been operating at the highest level. He looked as good as ever at Cheltenham last time – but they can’t stay at a peak indefinitely – and sooner or later, it will catch up with him…

Secondly, he faces some pretty decent opposition this afternoon…

Different Gravey was massively impressive when hammering a good field under top weight, on his belated debut at Ascot.

Whilst Prince of Scars comfortably beat Alpha Des Obeaux at Leopardstown over Christmas – and strictly on that form line, has very little ground to make up on Thistlecrack (who beat the same horse by slightly further when winning the World hurdle).

Shaneshill is also of interest, on his return to hurdles: and whilst Aqalim is unlikely to win, he is no mug and will be well suited by the conditions.

In short, this will be no cakewalk for Thistlecrack – with the opposition probably stronger than that he faced when winning at Cheltenham.

An option could be to simply lay Thistlecrack –  just over 3/1 for the field, seems like a fair bet.

However, I’ve opted for a more conventional back of Prince of Scars.

Soft ground is key for him, so last nights rain will have played right into his hands.

He comes here a fresh horse – and is much improved this season.

His form with Alpha Des Obeaux, gives him every chance of giving Thistlecrack a real race  – and at 20/1 this morning, I think he is worth a bet to finish in the top 2.

One slight concern I do have, is that there might be no pace in the race. That could make it all a bit of a lottery – and whilst that would be another reason for opposing Thistlecrack, it wouldn’t necessarily favour Prince of Scars…

4:20: Those of you who follow the official eye catchers, won’t have been too surprised to see me tipping Roc D’Apsis in this.

He caught my eye last time out in the Betbright chase at Kempton, when finishing well to take third place behind Theatre Guide.

That was the first time Roc D’Apsis had tried 3 miles – and it looked as if he was ridden to get the trip.
The way he finished that day, left little doubt that 3 miles is well within his compass, so I would expect him to be given a more prominent ride today.

Dickie Johnson was in the saddle at Kempton, as regular jockey, Paddy Brennan, was on board the winner Theatre Guide.
Brennan is back on board today – which is quite interesting, as he is also the regular pilot of early favourite, Mystifiable.

I don’t know whether Brennan had the choice of mounts, but having him riding certainly isn’t a negative.

Roc D’Apsis is a young, progressive horse and his win on his seasonal debut at Stratford, showed that he can handle both going left handed and soft ground.

I can see no reason why he won’t run a big race this afternoon – and am hopeful that Paddy will be able to get him home in front.

Soft ground could certainly spoil the chances of a few of his rivals – and whilst Mystifiable should handle it, that combined with a step up in trip and much stronger opposition, could prove a bit much for him to bite off.

Knock House won’t appreciate soft ground; and whilst Virak and Cloudy Too will, they both look a touch high in the weights…

Coologue could be the main danger – as there is a chance he will get an uncontested lead. However, there is also a chance that Dickie will be too forceful on him and he won’t get home.

Band of Blood should get home – but I suspect it will be after a few of the others.

He was an official eye catcher at Doncaster on his penultimate outing – but my feeling was he needed more of a stamina test than he will get today.

5:15: The 2016 Grand National !

All season long, I’ve been banging on about the chances of Goonyella in this – provided he got soft ground.

It looked unlikely yesterday, when the National course was definitely riding on the quick side – but overnight rain on saturated ground, is likely to have turned things in his favour.

And if it has, then I think he will take a lot of beating.
He’s been on my radar for over 12 months – since he ploughed through the Uttoxeter mud to take the Midlands Grand national.
He followed that up with a huge run to finish second in the Scottish national – and all of this season has been about one race.

Ofcourse, he’s going to need luck: and Johnny Burke will need to ride an intelligent race – but if he does, and the ground rides as I expect, I will be surprised if he’s not there or thereabouts…

If he does get beaten, then I think it will most likely be by one of two horses: either Holywell of Gallant Oscar.

I’m not interested in backing either of them EW – as I think they will either win or bust…

Holywell has the form to win this. I don’t particularly like the horse – but I can’t crab his record – nor the fact that he is a much better horse in the spring.
He finished fourth in last seasons Gold Cup – miles ahead of Silviniaco Conti and Many Clouds – yet he gets almost a stone off both of them today.

He won’t lack for stamina – but whether he’ll be prepared to jump the fences is a different matter.

He’s not a particularly big horse - and they just could be too much for him. But if they aren’t, it will take a very good one to beat him.

Gallant Oscar is the other one that I’m only interested in backing to win.

He looks to have been plotted up by Tony Martin – and the overnight rain has improved his chances markedly.

It’s not possible to argue his chance using the form book, in the same way as Holywell – but I have a suspicion he will produce his best every performance today.
If he does, then once again, it will take a good one to beat him…

I want a couple of others on side, EW, at big prices.

The overnight rain has influenced my thinking with these 2, as both will appreciate cut in the ground, more than most.

The first is Unioniste.

He was a faller last year, when running from an 8lb higher mark. He was just a 16/1 shot that day – and will appreciate todays soft ground more than the good to soft he got then.
His recent run at Kelso behind Many Clouds, was promising enough – and provided he doesn’t remember last years fall, I can see this normally sound jumper going very well.

The other one is Boston Bob.

He won a Grade 1 at this meeting a couple of seasons ago – and followed that up by wining another Grade 1 at the Punchestown festival.

He spent all of last season running in Grade 1 company - but wasn’t quite up to mixing it with the very best.
A couple of poor runs this season have seen the handicapper drop his mark – but he showed when winning last time, that the fire still burns.

He’s another who will appreciate soft ground - and at a big price, is worth having on side.

The rain has put me off both Sainte Are and Shutthefrontdoor – I would have given them both a good chance on decent ground.

I would also have put up Hadrian’s Approach EW – but he wants a quick surface.

I don’t think the rain will help the chances of either Many Clouds or Silviniaco Conti – as it will make it that much more difficult to carry a big weight.

It will also make it more of a stamina test, which won’t suit either O’Faolains Boy, Morning Assembly – or official eye catcher, Double Ross

6:10: This is really not a race that I fancy having a go at – particularly on the back of the Grand National !

The money for Dell ‘Arca looks significant – as he is potentially a well handicapped horse, who could improve for the fitting of blinkers.

Automated is the other really interesting one, for the Gordon Elliot/Jack Kennedy combination – but he is disputing favouritism with Dell ‘Arca !

Frodon is the third one to interest me – but he’s third favourite for the race, so I’ve done really well !

Fourth favourite, is Boite. He was an official eye catcher when running last time at Newbury.

My issue with him today, is that he has a preference for quick ground – and my expectation/hope is that he won’t get it…!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

 

Aintree 3:40 Prince of Scars 0.125pt EW 20/1

Aintree 4:20 Roc D’Apsis 0.375pt win, 0.125pt place 10/1

Aintree 5:15 Goonyella 0.125 EW 25/1 

Aintree 5:15 Holywell 0.125 win 16/1 

Aintree 5:15 Gallent Oscar 0.125 win 18/1 

Aintree 5:15 Unioniste EW 33/1 (0.125pt staked)

Aintree 5:15 Boston Bob EW 40/1 (0.125pt staked) 

Eye Catchers

Aintree 1:45 Join the Clan

Aintree 4:20 Roc D’Apsis

Aintree 4:20 Band of Blood

Aintree 5:15 Double Ross

Aintree 6:10 Boite