Day
2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting.
I
felt the ground was riding much slower on the hurdles course than on either of
the chase courses, yesterday.
There has been no rain at the track in the last 24 hours,
so conditions will have quickened slightly.
That
said, it is hardly drying weather, so I don’t expect too much difference in the
ground…
Todays races don’t look particularly punter friendly – so
I’m not going mad with tips.
As
with Cheltenham, yesterday was a day for favourites – and that does seem to be
the case most of the time, nowadays.
‘The
value bettor’ is in danger of being usurped by the ‘bleedin obvious bettor’ ! –
how times change...
Here
are my thoughts on the day:
Aintree
1:40: My initial feeling when I saw this race, was
to steer well clear !
There are 3 official eye catchers running in it; an
ex-tip – and quite a few horses with serious potential.
However, I’ve found that it doesn’t always pay to run
away from these races, as the one thing I do have, is a good feel for most of
the runners.
The
tricky bit is dismissing horses you have an allegiance to – but this isn’t a
game for the sentimental…
In
terms of the eye-catchers, then Theinval, Qewy and Mad Jack Mytton all went into
the notebook following good runs at Cheltenham.
However, all 3 would prefer quicker ground than they are going to get today – and as a consequence, I’m prepared to pass on them all.
However, all 3 would prefer quicker ground than they are going to get today – and as a consequence, I’m prepared to pass on them all.
Starchitect is the ex tip that is running. I tipped him
last time at Cheltenham, when he finished a creditable fifth in the County
hurdle.
He
may improve for todays step up in trip – but he’s not one for me…
I
think that Virgilio, Blazer and Champagne at Tara, are all more
interesting.
However, they have shown their cards, to an extent – and
I suspect this race will be won by a horse with a few secrets…
There are 3 novices in the race: Mas Du Fou, Curious
Carlos and Tycoon Prince – and I think they are most likely to provide the
winner.
I
couldn’t put anyone off Mas du Fou – but Warren Greatrex has had a few similar
sorts recently disappoint in big races.
Curious Carlos is possibly the value play in the race, at
20/1+ - but I think Tycoon Prince is the most likely winner…
After 3 bumper wins last season, the world looked his
oyster – and he has therefore been a little disappointing this
campaign.
He
did win a minor race on his seasonal debut at Punchestown, but has since been
well beaten in 2 graded races.
However, he has undergone a breathing operation since his
last run in December, and I suspect we will see a different horse this
afternoon…
Unfortunately for the official handicapper, he has to
judge the horse on performances on the track – but I wouldn’t be surprised if
his rating of 136 vastly underestimates his ability…
He
has possibly the best target trainer in the business, in the shape of Gordon
Elliot – and if this horse is backed, I’ll be a little disappointed if he
doesn’t collect (regardless of the apparent strength of the
opposition).
The
other one worthy of a quick mention, is Clondaw Kaempfer.
He
won this race 2 years ago off a 3lb higher mark. He’s done very little since
then – but the aids are put on today (tongue tie and cheek pieces). If they have
the desired effect, he is clearly handicapped to go very close.
2:15: The 2 ‘bleedin obvious’ ones in
this are Buveur Dair and Limini.
The
former finished third in the supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival –
and should appreciate todays softer ground.
Whilst the latter was a very easy winner of the inaugural running of the mares novice hurdle, at the festival.
Whilst the latter was a very easy winner of the inaugural running of the mares novice hurdle, at the festival.
It’s
impossible to compare the 2.
Buveur Dair certainly ran in the stronger race – but
Limini won so easily, there is no way to gauge the level of her
ability.
The
suggestion seems to be that Limini is very good – and as she comes from the
stable of Willie Mullins, she is probably the one to beat.
That
said, I prefer not to guess too much, when the price is so short…
Instead, I’d rather take a chance on Bleu et
Rouge.
He
also ran at the Cheltenham festival, but fell around half way in the Albert
Bartlett.
To
be honest, that 3 mile race looked a strange one for him to be running
in.
He’d
won his previous race over 18f at Leopardstown, when he comfortably beat
Tombstone.
That
one came out next time and ran fourth in the Supreme novice at Cheltenham – just
one place and 4 lengths, behind Buveur Dair.
On
that form line, there should be very little between Bleu et Rouge and Buveur
Dair.
Furthermore, Bleu et Rouge has plenty of scope for
improvement.
He
has only run 4 times over hurdles – and had improved with each outing (until his
most recent one).
I
would have preferred to see really soft ground today (to maximise the emphasis
on stamina) - but provided there is a sound pace, I’m hopeful that Bleu et Rouge
will put up a good show.
Agrapart is the other one worth a mention.
He
was a good winner of the Betfair hurdle on his most recent outing – and he does
like to get on with things.
That
is also the case with Marracudja, so hopefully between the 2 of them, they will
ensure this is run at a good clip, which will suit Bleu et Rouge.
2:50: I don’t much like the look of this
race…
Or
more specifically, I don’t much like either of the favourites: Blaklion or Un
Temp pour Tout – but I can’t find anything to beat them !
To
be fair, I have no real issue with Blaklion. He’s an honest horse – and whilst
he was maybe a little fortune to win the RSA chase, the fact is, he did win
it.
He
might win this as well – but he’s the kind of horse I will always feel is
beatable (particularly when the emphasis is not on stamina).
I’m
less keen on Un Temp pour Tout – though there can be no denying he was a good
winner of a strong handicap at the festival.
I
have a feeling he might win this as well – but I won’t be backing him to do so
!
There are some horses that I just struggle to take to –
and Un Temp pour Tout is one of them…
However, finding alternatives to the main players, is
very difficult.
Third favourite, Native River is just painfully slow –
and I can’t see how he can win over 3 miles on a speed track like
Aintree.
Ballyalton could be of interest – but he wants quick
ground and he’s not going to get that.
Conversely Otago Trail wants a bog – and the ground won’t
be that bad.
The
other 3 just don’t look good enough.
Roi
De Francs was well beaten by Blaklion in the RSA and Out Sam was well beaten by
Un Temp pour Tout.
By a
process of elimination, Henri Parry Morgan therefore becomes the chief danger -
but it requires some imagination to see him winning a grade 1 race…
I
suspect that Un Temp pout Tout and Blaklion will end up fighting out the finish,
with former probably getting the upper hand.
I’ll
just be watching it though…
3:25: Provided Vautour jumps round cleanly, he
will win this.
It
really is as simple as that.
He’s different class to his rivals – and will have no issue with track, trip or ground.
He’s different class to his rivals – and will have no issue with track, trip or ground.
1/4
– with faller insurance - would only be marginally more risky than putting money
in the bank !
The
main question therefore has to be, what follows him home..?
That’s not quite so clear cut – though Al Ferof is the
most likely candidate.
He
finished fourth to Vautour at Cheltenham. He was beaten nearly 8 lengths that
day - and if he can finish as close
today, that should be good enough to secure the runner-up spot.
God’s Own is an official eye catcher, from his
penultimate run at Kempton.
He
finished firth in the Champion chase at Cheltenham, last time – and has a chance
of going a couple of places better this afternoon.
However, the left hand track is not in his favour – nor
would be rain softened ground.
Vibrtao Valtat is the other one worthy of serious
consideration for second place – though I suspect he is more likely to finish
third or fourth.
Simply, this is not a betting contest – it is an
opportunity to watch a top class horse strut his stuff.
Enjoy the spectacle.
4:05: Just the 29 runners, racing over the Aintree
fences – where to begin ?
How
about with last seasons renewal..?!
That
was won in scintillating style, by the late and much missed, Rajdhani
Express.
He
was an exceptionally well handicapped horse that day – who probably only needed
to jump round to win.
It
therefore stands to reason, that the horses who followed him home, should have
their performances marked up.
Step
forward Fairy Rath and Rathlin.
Both
are the sort of horses I love backing over the Aintree fences. They are big
horses, who jump with conviction – and like to race prominently.
Fairy Rath ran the race of his life to finish second last
year – and off exactly the same mark today, I think he is highly likely to run
another huge race.
Clearly his season has been geared around this one race –
though his win at Sandown on his penultimate outing reminded us, what he is
capable of.
That victory was also achieved on soft ground – which eliminates some of the fear I had on that score.
That victory was also achieved on soft ground – which eliminates some of the fear I had on that score.
Rathlin was 10 lengths behind Fairy Rath last year – but
he races from a 9lb lower mark this year.
He
is now under the care of Micky Hammond and after showing little on his first few
runs for the stable, came good last time out at Ayr.
That
shows him in good form – and he also has the wily Davy Russell in the
saddle.
There is a chance that both will be vulnerable to younger
legs – but I can’t see them not running well.
As
you would expect, most of the main dangers are at the top of the
betting.
Village Vic, Killer Crow, As de Mee, Bishops Road and
Bennys Mist, are all capable of going very close.
I
would also add into that list, Cocktails at Dawn, Ballykan and Minella
Reception.
I
think those 3 have all got chances better than their odds suggest.
However, I’m happy enough to take the 2 old boys in the
race – and hope that at least one of them goes close.
4:40: This is not a race which I have a strong
view on – and to be honest, it’s not a race that I would expect many to have a
strong view on…
The
field consists of a lot of horses who have run to a seemingly similar level of
form - but who have plenty of potential scope for improvement.
12
months ago, it was won by a virtually unconsidered 25/1 shot called Thistlecrack
– even after the race, I don’t think anyone would have expected what happened
this season.
It’s
unlikely that there is a horse of Thistlecracks ability in todays field – though
I guess you never know !
Baoulet Delaroque and Yala Enki probably bring the best
form in to the race – courtesy of good runs in decent handicaps.
I
would expect them both to run well – without perhaps being good enough to
win.
Willie Mullins is responsible for 4 of the runners – with
Bellshill and Balko Des Flos, looking the most interesting.
The
former finished second to Barters Hill in the bumper at this meeting 12 months
ago – and if he handles the step up in trip, he could be with one to
beat.
That
said, Balko Des Flos travelled well in the Albert Barlett and it could be
significant that Barry Cooper opts to ride him ahead of the other Gigginstown
runner, Gangster.
Ballyoptic and Ballydine are 2 others worthy of a mention
– but it’s that kind of a race…
Head
on the block, I’d opt for Bellshill – but confidence would be
limited…
5:15: The first 3 home from the
Cheltenham bumper re-oppose in this – and in all likelihood, one of them will
come home in front.
When
they met at Prestbury Park, Ballyandy got the better of Battelford by a nose,
with Bacardys 2 lengths back in third.
Ballyandy has to concede 4 pounds to all of his rivals
today – and that could be enough to stop him following up.
Battleford is the one most likely to take advantage,
particularly as he was only having his second run under rules at Cheltenham –
and has Ruby Walsh in the saddle this afternoon.
However, the betting is wise to all of this – and at
11/4, there is very little margin in his price.
Outside the main 3, Utility and Bolving look the most
interesting – but again, the market has picked up on them.
Of
the big outsiders, I could see Willoughby Court outrunning odds of
25/1.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Advice
Summary
Tips
Aintree 1:40 Tycoon Prince 0.25pt win
8/1
Aintree 2:15 Bleu et Rouge 0.25pt win
16/1
Aintree 4:05 Fairy Rath 0.125 EW 25/1
Aintree 4:05 Rathlin 0.125 EW 18/1
Eye Catchers
Aintree 1:40 Theinval
Aintree 1:40 Qewy
Aintree 1:40 Mad Jack Mytton
Aintree 3:25 God’s Own
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