Overview
The
2015-16 season will be viewed as the one in which TVB changed from a tipping
service, with race analysis – to a race analysis service, with tips.
It
had been coming for a few years – but the introduction of the Info service saw
the balance of the service switch from being primarily ‘prescriptive’, to more
‘guiding’.
Ofcourse it’s impossible to accurately measure the performance of a
service that advises – but the figures of those who have embraced the concept,
suggest that it was possible to achieve profits from the Info side, of up to
twice those achievable from the tips.
Obviously, effort was required to achieve such profits –
and generally, the more people put in, the more they got out.
However, no significant racing knowledge was required –
just an ability to interpret my thoughts – and maybe a willingness to take some
additional direction from the markets.
Needless to say, with such success, the service will
continue to move in the Info direction – though I don’t plan to give up on the
tips, just yet !
Info Service
I
guess the Info Service has always been part of TVB – however, it was only this
year that it was given a formal title.
The
rationale that accompanies every tip, has long proved a useful guide for both
staking – and covering bets: whilst views on other races, have provided
additional betting opportunities, as and when circumstances have
suited.
The
introduction of a forum, enabled the sharing of knowledge and ideas – and the
likes of Liam, Paul and Francis, helped others decide on a strategy for
exploiting the Info in the write-ups (thank you guys).
The
Forum also acted as a repository for the official ‘eye catchers’.
These were only introduced relatively late in the season
– but it was merely making visible something that I’ve always done.
I
expect their value to be particularly significant at the start of next season –
and I am sure they will quickly become core to the whole TVB service (both Info
and Tips).
The
slight adjustment made to the structure of the daily write-up, now enables
people to more clearly view my thoughts on individual races.
There are many reasons why it is difficult for me to tip
in certain races: prices; market strength; conditions; uncertainty over other
runners etc.
However, the write-up enables me to express my opinions
and as situations clarify, people can decide whether or not to get
involved.
The
Info service is designed to point people in the right direction – without
telling them exactly what to do.
This
means that people can customise the bets they place – which in turn, means they
have a better chance of betting profitably and maintaining bookmaker
accounts.
The
suggestion from the feedback on the forum, is that the Info service can be used
to generate decent profits throughout the season (even during times when the
tips are struggling).
Tipping Service
Despite the increased importance of the Info, the Tips
are (and will remain) a big part of the service for many of you.
Results (excluding Cheltenham & Aintree)
If
you were able to secure the best prices on the tips, then you would have made
21.21pts profit on 47.625pts staked (ROI 44%) – and experienced 5 consecutive
winning months.
By
Month
|
Month
|
Tips
|
Pts staked
|
Pts profit at advised stk
|
Pts profit at level stk
|
Pts profit at BSP advised
|
Pts profit at BSP level
|
|
Nov
|
44
|
13.375
|
10.96
|
43
|
3.51
|
12.11
|
|
Dec
|
44
|
12.125
|
4.125
|
14.5
|
2.62
|
9.39
|
|
Jan
|
31
|
9.25
|
0.5
|
10
|
-3.44
|
-10.72
|
|
Feb
|
32
|
8.75
|
1.375
|
2.5
|
-0.74
|
-4.54
|
|
Mar
|
16
|
4.125
|
4.25
|
16
|
4.53
|
16.96
|
|
Total
|
167
|
47.625
|
21.21
|
86
|
6.47
|
23.3
|
By
Day of the Week
|
Day
|
Tips
|
Proft/Loss
|
|
Mon
|
4
|
-1.25
|
|
Tue
|
12
|
5.375
|
|
Wed
|
8
|
-2
|
|
Thur
|
16
|
1.375
|
|
Fri
|
27
|
7.65
|
|
Sat
|
85
|
10.06
|
|
Sun
|
15
|
0
|
By Race class (excluding Irish races)
|
Race Class
|
Tips
|
Profit/Loss
|
|
1
|
32
|
8.56
|
|
2
|
36
|
0.28
|
|
3
|
54
|
8.63
|
|
4
|
26
|
-0.88
|
|
5
|
1
|
1.5
|
For
those who would like more detail of the tips: I will add a spreadsheet to the
TVB website, showing details of all tips issued during the season, when I update
the website (in the next month or so).
Issues
This
was my 4th season tipping – and the actual issuing of tips was harder
than ever before…
The
mid-week markets in particular, are now both defensive and fragile, meaning that
many horses are priced up lower than they should be, by most bookmakers (there
is large over round) – and any tip quickly shortens in price.
As a
consequence, finding tips in midweek races isn’t easy – and issuing them is even
more difficult.
This
wasn’t helped by some people backing tips on BF at below the odds – as the
linkages between that and various bookmakers, meant that on those occasions,
prices lasted mere seconds.
As a
consequence, people who could bet with bookmakers either got accounts marked as
they backed ‘steamers’ - or got frustrated at missing prices.
Clearly this is not a sustainable situation – and it made
me very wary about issuing tips in such races.
Tipping on a Saturday into stronger markets, was less of
an issue – and going forward, I think I will need to separate these two groups
of tips…
The
other big issue, was the weather.
To
an extent, it’s an occupational hazard – however, I do feel that this season was
particularly bad.
I
lost count of the number of days on which it rained – making it almost
impossible to get a proper handle on ground conditions.
As a
consequence of these 2 issues, the number of tips issued was markedly down on
last season – with the biggest impact in the mid-week…
Backing tips at SP
It’s
a fact that more and more of you are struggling to find bookmakers prepared to
take your bets – particularly at early prices.
Bookmakers talk about ‘responsible’ betting – but the
reality is, they don’t want to do business with people who bet
responsibly.
To
an extent, I have some sympathy with them. Relatively small over-rounds, BOG and
first past the post, must make their margins tiny – particularly if they are up
against someone who knows what they are doing.
I
suspect that most of us know exactly what we are doing – and the bookmakers soon
realise they will lose if they play against us – and consequently they shut down
our accounts.
The
best way we can counter against this, is to bet profitably at SP (or close to
SP).
It
will always be possible to bet in a shop, or on BF, close to the off – though
making a profit through such betting is considerably more difficult.
That
said, it can be done – and a number of the Info guys did exactly that, this
season.
Backing all of the tips to advised stakes, at BSP
returned a profit of 6.47pts (ROI 13.6%) – at level stakes, the profit was
23.2pts (ROI 13.9%).
Quite bizarrely, over half of the tips (88 v 79) had an
industry SP greater than their BSP (minus the 5% BF commission).
I
really can’t explain why that might be, as typically only around 15% of horses
will have an industry SP greater than BSP (which is why taking BSP is generally
the best policy)
I
didn’t record profit against industry SP, but I suspect the numbers would have
been similar to BSP.
The
conclusion from this is that if you are betting at SP, you should either try to
bet BOG with a bookmaker; or place your bet a couple of minutes before the off
on BF (rather than taking BSP).
More
generally, the main point to note if betting at SP, is that well supported tips
remain the best ones to follow.
Over
the course of the season, there were 6 horses whose BSP was less than half the
price advised – and 3 of these won. Backing them at advised stakes would have
yielded a profit of 3.86pts at BSP (18.68pts at a level stake).
More
than that, just backing all of the horses whose BSP was shorter than the advised
price (and there were 125 of them), would have yielded a profit of 10.41pts at
BSP (40.37pts at a level stake).
Theses numbers strongly support what I’ve always felt:
the best TVB tips to follow are the ones that all well supported in the
market.
In
previous seasons, the numbers haven’t backed up my feelings quite as
much.
Historically, there has generally been a small profit to
be made backing all tips at BSP.
However, the ‘drifters’ have tended to be helped by the odd winning tip in a very big field, at a very big price (the likes of Jadanli). I didn’t put up as many of those this year – and didn’t hit on any such winner.
However, the ‘drifters’ have tended to be helped by the odd winning tip in a very big field, at a very big price (the likes of Jadanli). I didn’t put up as many of those this year – and didn’t hit on any such winner.
The
bottom line seems quite clear: if you are backing the tips close to the off,
stick with the ones the market likes (and the more it likes it, the better
!).
Plans for Next Season
The
2016-17 season will be my fifth season tipping – and I feel like I’m now
occupying the space that I always intended…
TVB
is primarily a NH racing advisory service.
The
Info service has cemented that position – and its success was the big thing I
will take out of the season just gone.
Simply, I produce output which people can generate good
profits from – if they are prepared to make the effort.
The
Info service will be the core TVB offering for the 2016-17 season – but I will
still continue to tip.
It
did however become apparent early this season, that tipping mid-week to the
number of subscribers I have, doesn’t work.
I
restricted the number to 50 – but that is too many.
The
market just won’t take the volume in a mid week, so I’ll need to cut the number
back (and get assurances from those who receive mid week tips, that they will
stay off BF).
Weekends are different.
There was no issue with the tips I issued on a Saturday – or indeed on the other big race days.
There was no issue with the tips I issued on a Saturday – or indeed on the other big race days.
Consequently, next season, there will be 2 tipping
services: mid week tips and Saturday tips.
That
is likely to be the biggest change I make to the service – and I’ll spend the
summer mulling over how best to handle it.
Aside from that, I think most things will stay roughly
the same – with a touch of evolution…
-
The forum is here to stay and I will look to use it progressively more. The
‘race of the day’ and the ‘naps competition’ helped create a sense of community
– and were contributory factors in the success of the day at the races (which I
will definitely look to repeat next year). The issues with the original forum
were unfortunate – but the new one seems sufficiently robust.
-
The eye-catchers will play an increasingly important role in the service. I
would expect to spend a good deal of the pre-season, building a list which will
get us through the first half of the season (at least)
- I
plan to create a sub forum for ante-post thoughts, next season. I am happy
keeping ante-post tips out of the main service, but I think there is scope to
preview some of the big races early and ‘mention’ a few horses of
interest
-
Top Picks are something I need to give thought to. I only re-introduced them
late this season (they were strong mentions until that point) – but they were
very successful. I issued 4 Top Picks - and 3 of them won, resulting in a 6pt
profit at BSP, to a level stake. It was a similar story last season, so clearly,
they warrant inclusion in the service. The question is whether I turn them into
short priced tips – or leave them in the Info service. This is something I need
to mull over.
-
Staking of tips remains an area that I probably need to work on. This season I
effectively had a 4 pt range (0.125-0.5). The original plan was for an 8pt range
– but I never explored the upper end ! It could be the same again next season –
but to an extent, that will depend on how I handle the Top Picks.
-
Seasonality is also something I need to remain mindful of. I tend to do very
well until the rain comes – but then things can get tough. In fairness, I’m
aware of this – but options are limited when you have little idea over the state
of the ground.
Summary
This
years end of season report has a slightly different feel to those I’ve produced
in previous seasons - but I think that reflects the change in the service (with
less emphasis on the tips).
Hopefully I’ve still covered all of the important areas:
painted a fair picture of the season gone - and given an overview of how I
envisage things moving forward.
TVB
has always been a service for the NH enthusiast – and will continue to move in
that direction.
That
said, I has also always been a service which, people can use to make profit –
and I have no intention of changing that, either !
The
blend can be a tricky one to achieve – but if nothing else, I hope you can all
see that I continually strive to do just that.
As
always, any feedback on the service – or the report – will be most
welcome.
TVB.
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