Daily write-up - Feb 6th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

And what a feast of racing it is !

All of the UK meetings have merit – but they are playing second fiddle to a stunning meeting in Ireland.

With 4 grade 1 contests, the Leopardstown card is arguable the biggest meeting held between Christmas and Cheltenham.

I’ve issued quite a few tips on the day.

As is so often the case, they are all ‘value bets’, rather than ‘racing certainties’.

To an extent, that’s driven by the nature of the racing.

If we can get one winner, I’ll be happy (as we’ll not lose on the day) – anything more than that, would be a bonus !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips – plus a fair few other thoughts…

Leopardstown

12:55: Ivanovich Gorbachov has been put in very short for this…

He was the impressive winner of a maiden hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting on his hurdling debut, comfortably beating Lets Dance (who reopposes today).

He looked a natural that day – travelling well through the race and jumping cleanly.

He is now just 4/1 to win the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival – so he really needs to be winning today, in order to justify that price.

He may very well do so – but I feel an obligation to oppose him…

The main 4 year old hurdle race at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, is the Grade 2 Knight Frank juvenile hurdle.

That was won by Apples Jade, from Jers Girl – with Rashaan a well beaten fifth.

Rashaan was sent off joint favourite for that race (with Footpad – who also runs in this race) – so needless to say, it was very disappointing that he finished well beaten.

There is a chance that it was a fair reflection of his ability – but equally, there is a chance that he seriously under-performed.

He had been very impressive in his 3 hurdle runs prior to Leopardstown – and collateral form with Lagostovegas, who he beat on his hurdling debut – and who subsequently finished third to Ivanovich Gorbachov, suggests there shouldn’t be that much between him and the favourite.

I did also consider tipping Jers Girl in the race – as she is likely to get the run of it from the front and could proved difficult to pass.

I think she is a reasonable EW play – but I do think that something is likely to collar her close home.

At the prices, I think it is worth a risk, that Rashaan will be the one… 

2:30: This is a very tight looking novice chase, in which a chance can be given to all 4 of the market principals.

Of the 4, I would be least keen on Pont Alexandre, as I think he needs more of a test of stamina (though I’m sure that Ruby will try to make todays race, just that !).

I did briefly consider Monksland, as I think he represents a bit of value at 6/1.

However, I have a feeling that either Outlander or Zabana might just prove a bit too quick for him.

3:05: Vercingetorix caught my eye, last time out, in the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot.
He was put up by Pricewise for that race – and, to be honest, I didn’t understand why…

Well, I understood why (he is trained by Gordon Elliot !) – but I hadn’t seen a lot in his previous race (when he ran behind Blue Hell and Diamond King).
Vercingetorix, didn’t feature in the finish of The Ladbroke – but he did show enough to convince me that he was capable of picking up a similar contest.

Todays contests isn’t anywhere near as valuable (or as strong) as the Ascot race – so that increase the attraction of Vercingetorix.

As to does the fact that he is able to run off a mark 11lb lower.
The UK handicapper has free reign to give whatever rating he likes to Irish horses - and invariably, he pushes them up by a few pounds. However, he does seem to have been particularly harsh with Vercingetorix.

Still, that means he looks well handicapped today – particularly with crack amateur, Jack Kennedy, taking off a further 3lb.

It’s interesting to note, that exactly 12 months ago, Vercingetorix was sent off at just 9/4 for the grade 1 juvenile hurdle that opens todays card.

Off a mark of 124 today, he must have a very big chance indeed.

3:40: On recent form, Road to Riches stands head and shoulders above his rivals in the Irish Gold cup – but that’s why he is an even money chance.

He finished a highly creditable third in last seasons Gold Cup – and if he repeats that form today, he will almost certainly win.

In fact the only horse in the race, who can get within hailing distance of that level of form, is Sir Des Champs.

Unfortunately, it was 3 seasons ago, when he finished second in the Gold Cup behind Bobsworth – before winning the Punchestown Gold Cup.

At that time, the world seemed his oyster, but a couple of disappointing runs the following season, were followed by almost 2 years on the sidelines.

He reappeared at Thurles in November and managed to over haul Rubi Light, having looked well held turning in.

The suggestion was that maybe he would be able to recapture former glories – but a disappointing run in the Hennessey at Christmas, raised serious question marks.

In fairness, that race was run on very heavy ground - and he did make a couple of early mistakes. It was also his second run back after a long absence – and the ‘bounce factor’ may have been at play.

It’s nearly 6 weeks since that run, so he should be ready to perform to his best this afternoon.

Whether that best is still good enough to beat Road to Riches, is a different matter – but at his peak he would certainly have given him a race, so I think it is worth a small risk to find out.

Of the others, then Valseur Lido probably has the most scope for improvement: whilst Foxrock could run well enough to place (but shouldn’t really be good enough to win).

Ffos Las

2:05: It’s likely to be survival of the fittest at Ffos Las !

This is a really competitive race – and I whilst I couldn’t confidently rule out anything (apart form Foxcub), I was mainly interested in 3: Deputy Dan, Racing Pulse and Sirop de Menthe.

I have niggly concerns about all 3 – but I have least issues with Sirop de Menthe – and he was also the biggest price.

My concern with him is whether he is quite up to today’s class.

However, he ran a massive race last time out at Sandown, puling clear with Rayvin Black in atrocious conditions.

That race was also class 2 – and Rayvin Black has subsequently gone on and run The New One close at Haydock, suggesting that Sirop De Menthe ran particularly well that day.

He was raised 4lb for that run – but will still be 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon.
However, that is off-set by his riders claim – and to be honest, 2lb is likely to be neither here nor there, this afternoon -  it will simply be about who handles the conditions best.

I’m certainly hopeful that Sirop De Menthe will. His form in heavy going is excellent – and whilst there is a tiny question mark over the trip (most of his wins have been at 2 miles) – he won very well over 2m4f in the heavy at Lingfield.

With regard to the 2 main dangers in the race: then I would be worried about Deputy Dans ability to lug 11st7lb n the mud (plus he is pretty short in the betting); whilst he form of the Rebecca Curtis stable is enough to put me off Racing Pulse… 

3:15: The form of the Rebecca Curtis stable is enough to put me of the 4 runners that she saddles in this…

The stable was clearly in the doldrums around November time (which was attributed to a batch of dodgy feed) – but seemed set to bounce back just before Christmas.
However, recent signs are that all is still not well.

It’s a long time since she had her last winner – and some of her more fancied horses, just haven’t been performing (Irish Cavalier last Saturday, being a good example).

In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking on her runners – which leaves just 3 to focus on in this particular race !

Allez Vic can’t jump and is unlikely to stay 3miles+ - so it was either Cogry or Finish the Story.

Cogry is the classier horse – but consequently has far more weight to carry (and every pound is likely to count in the bottom-less ground).

Finish the Story is a fair sort, who likes to race prominently (which should also be an advantage today).
His form is generally consistent – apparently he suffered a bad journey last time, when disappointing at Kelso.

His previous run behind Golden Chieftain looks good in light of that ones subsequent exploits and off a basement mark – he looks the safest option in the race.

4:25: I’m drawn to Headley Bridge in this, as I feel he is well handicapped (and should handle the conditions).

However, a near years absence - plus top weight, put me off a little (despite the fact he won on his seasonal debut, last season).

If Awaywiththegreys jumps round, he is handicapped to win – but I suspect his jumping won’t be good enough.

The trip isn’t really far enough for Copper Birch (though he is well handicapped and will handle the conditions).

Rouge et Blanc isn’t well handicapped – but he is another who will be just fine in the mud.

Sandown

1:15: I can only see 2 ways in which this race will pan out.
Rayvin Black will lead and: either, Peace and Co will settled in behind – and will chug by him after the last, smiling as he passes: or, Peace and Co will pull for his head and fall in a hole up the home straight, leaving Rayvin Black to come home alone.

The ‘value’ call is probably the latter – or even more creatively, a forecast for Rayvin Black to beat the other 2 runners…

1:50: I’m pretty keen on Arthurs Oak in this – but less keen on his price.

He was beaten last time by Bold Henry – but on 5lb better terms and with the chance of an uncontested lead, I expect him to gain his revenge this afternoon.

Non of the other 3 can be completely dismissed - but I think they all have enough to prove.

You’ll not get rich backing a 9/4 shot – but I think it is probably a perfectly fair price…

2:25: I was hopeful that Maximiser might be able to shake up the big 2 in this – but he’s now a NR, so we’ll never know…

His absence will help Bristol De Mai (as he should now get an uncontested lead) – and it is a difficult call between him and Tea for Two.

It’s likely to come down to jumping and tactics – so on balance, probably best to just make it a watching race…

3:00: Three progressive horses head the market for this, in the shape of Baywing, Ibis Du Rheu and Yala Enki, but they are all going up in the handicap - and I want to take them on with Saddlers Encore.

He was a very promising novice a couple of seasons back, when he won his last two races.

It was difficult to judge the merit of those wins at the time, but the subsequent performances of the horses he beat – Southfield Vic and Virtuel D’Oudon – suggest it was very good form.
Both of those horses are now rated in the 140s – yet Saddlers Encore gets to run today, off a mark of just 129.

He ran off that mark when he made his comeback at Wincanton, over Christmas.

He clearly wasn’t fancied that day (conditional ridden and sent off a 16/1 shot) but non the less, he ran a very creditable race to finish fifth behind his stable mate, If in Doubt, beaten just over 4 lengths.

Dickie Johnson takes over in the saddle this afternoon – which is a huge positive – and I can see him picking up from where he left off, a couple of seasons back.

Of the outsiders, then I was most tempted by Invicta Lake.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - when I was also tempted by him – but didn’t tip him !

He’s a pound lower today (though has to carry 2lb over weight) – and ran creditably last time out.

He’s certainly worth a saver at around 16/1…

3:30: I think the state of the ground will have a big bearing on the result of this race.

Provided it is not to soft, then I think Knock House is the one to beat.

He won well at Cheltenham 2 runs ago, before being left with a lot to do last time out, at the same course.

It looks significant that Gavin Sheehan jumps ship from Seventh Sky to ride him – but he wouldn’t want the ground to deteriorate significantly.

If it does, then Saroque could be the one.
He ran really well last time out in the Welsh National – and again, it looks significant that Aidan Coleman chooses him in preference to Summary Justice.

Conditions are perfect for Le Reve – and he is well enough handicapped – I just don’t like the fact he is running again, a week after finishing sixth in the Sky bet chase at Doncaster – that suggests this is an after thought…

Wetherby

1:35: I’m drawn to Katkeau in this – even though he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped, it’s over a trip that might be to short – and he’s been installed favourite !

What I do like, is the fact that he’s the only horse that David Pipe sends to Wetherby (and the stable is in good form) – and that even bigger holes can be found in the form of most of his rivals…

Sew on Target is probably the next most interesting, as he has lots in his favour. However, he likes to front run and Renard might have a say in that…

Yes, our old friend Renard is running in this race – which in itself, is probably sufficiently good reason for me to leave it alone !

2:45: This is an absolute cracker of a novice chase – and whilst I’ll be surprised if either of the outsiders win, choosing between the other 4, isn’t easy…

That said, I did consider tipping Bitofapuzzle.

However, I wanted 4/1 – and that was only available with 2 or 3 of the ‘less serious’ bookmakers, so if would have been at 7/2.

There might be a little margin in that price – but there is very little in the 3/1 that is now the best available.

The plus points for her are that she could well get an uncontested lead – and she receives a lot of weight from both Blaklion and Native River.

However, I couldn’t easily dismiss either of them – nor could I easily dismiss Definitly Red.

On balance then, a race to watch and enjoy…

3:20: Finally, I think Waterclock is the one to beat in this.

A formerly very decent flat horse (he finished second in the 2013 Cesarewich), he caught my eye last time out when finishing with a flourish behind One for Harry.

That was over 2m4f – and he is stepped up in trip to 3 miles today.

I would expect that to suit –and was half tempted by the 4/1 early.
However, I didn’t act – and he’s now a best priced 3/1…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tip Summary

(E) Leopardstown 12:55 Rashaan 0.25pt win 25/1

(E) Leopardstown 3:05 Vercingetorix 0.25pt win 16/1

(E) Leopardstown 3:40 Sir Des Champs 0.125pt win 25/1

(E) Ffos Las 2:05 Sirop de Menthe 0.25pt win 9/1

(E) Ffos Las 3:15 Finish the Story 0.25pt win 8/1

(E) Sandown 3:00 Saddlers Encore 0.25pt win 13/2