Daily write-up - Feb 20th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Haydock, Ascot and Wincanton in the UK- plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Once again, a glut of top class action on a Saturday.

The mid-week cards are regularly dire - but come Saturday, there is more quality racing than you can get your head round ! (maybe that’s the idea !!).

The main meetings are at Haydock and Ascot - but the supporting cards at Wincanton and Fairyhouse are interesting in their own right.

My chief concern today, is the state of the ground at Ascot.
I know it’s going to be desperate at Haydock (I’ve honestly never seen a going stick reading as low as the 2.7 that has been registered for the chase course) – and I suspect it won’t be a whole lot better at either Wincanton or Fairyhouse.

Ascot is a different matter however.

The current reading of 6.5, is on the good side of soft – however rain is forecast for later in the day, so that might well change.
I suspect it could end up like Sandown yesterday – almost impossible to say.

And that’s a shame – as there are horses I could fancy if the going were heavy – and others I could fancy if the going were good – but it’s impossible to be confident about either.

Anyway, things are as they are (we should be used to it by now !).

Here are my thoughts for the day…

Haydock

2:05: I really feel that I should be tipping At Fishers Cross in this…

On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race at the weights: he will love the heavy ground; he should be spot on following a decent debut run in Ireland: and he is one of only 2 rides for Barry Geraghty on the card.

The issue is simply the form of the Rebecca Curtis stable.

She’s struggled all season – and whilst things seemed to be improving around Christmas time, she’s not had a winner in weeks (and plenty of her horses have run disappointingly).

If he stable were in form, I think At Fishers Cross would be 2/1 or less. As it is, you can secure 9/2 quite easily…

In truth, I would never take 2/1 about At Fishers Cross, because he is a horse who has had a lot of problems in recent years. However, he has plenty of ability and 9/2 is quite tempting.

At the end of the day, I think you pay your money and make your choice.

There is a balance for all of the runners in this race between ‘official marks’ and ‘issues’.

Of the fancied horses, One Track Mind has the lowest official mark – but the least issues.

Whilst At Fisher Cross has the highest official mark (relatively speaking) – but the most issues.

Reve de Sivola, Silsol and Deputy Dan, sit in the middle.
Not an easy race to unravel then !!

2:40: He may not have won for over 4 years. But I’m quite keen on Harry the Viking in this…

In fairness, he was only beaten a head in this very race 12 months ago, and whilst he runs from a mark 4lb higher today, I don’t think that will be a major issue.

Far more important is that he will only have 10st5lb on his back – when over half the field will be carrying over 11st on what will be truly desperate ground.

What I like about Harry the Viking, is that he’s the only horse in the race who looks to have been aimed at it.

He likes Haydock and his last run, was at this course at the end of December, when beaten by Rigadin de Beauchene.

He is 6lb better off with Rigadin today – so on the book, there should be very little between the pair.
However Rigadin has subsequently run – and fallen - in the Classic chase at Warwick, whereas Harry the Viking has been saved for this race.

Harry is also nearly twice the price of Rigadin…

Of the others, then both Mountainous and Cloudy Too have had their recent days in the sun – and both have to run from 10lb higher marks today for their respective wins.

I think that will blunt their challenges.

Similarly, Bishops Road has to run from a mark 14lb higher than he won from last time out: and whilst the handicap mark of Gas Line Boy is unchanged from last time (he fell when going well, 5 out), I’m loathed to take too short a price on him, on the back of what might have been…

Broadway Buffalo is possibly the one to beat - though I find the booking of Katie Walsh a little odd (accepting she won on him at Cheltenham) – and his 3 month absence slightly disconcerting.

Whatever, I can’t see why Harry the Viking won’t run a very big race – and with a bit of luck, he might just break that 4 year losing hoodoo !!

3:15: At a price, I just have to be interested in Horizontal Speed, in this.

He ran a mighty race on New Years day, when finishing fourth in a hot handicap hurdle at Cheltenham.

That was his first run over hurdles for a couple of seasons, but he looked likely to win when jumping into the lead at the last.

However, he tired up the run in and eventually finished fourth.

On the back of that run, he as sent off third favourite for a competitive race over todays course and distance. However, that race was run just 3 weeks later – and he still seemed to be feeling the effects of the Cheltenham race.

He was pulled up early in the straight - but at least that saved him from having another hard race.

He’s been given 4 weeks to recover this time – and hopefully that will be long enough.

He has also been dropped 2lb in the handicap and drops slightly in trip, compared to the Cheltenham run (plus he won’t have the hill to content with).

If you took out his most recent run, I think Horizontal Speed would be close to a 10/1 shot in this – and a good argument could be made for him.

The Cheltenham race was clearly very attritional. Without exception, all of the horses involved in the finish that day, have disappointed on their next outing.

If Horizontal Speed is back to his best today, then I think he is capable of going very close, at a big price.

I did considering tipping him EW – but with a concern over whether he will be back to his best, I figured it better to back him win only and have a saver.

Of the market leaders, then Woodford Island is the one that appeals most.

He’s only 5 but has already run a number of good races this season.
In order to get into the Pertemps final, he really needs to win today – and the booking of Richard Johnson by Gordon Elliot, appears to be a real sign of intent…

If Horizontal Speed doesn’t bounce back to form, then I think Woodford Island is the one most likely to come home in front.

Ascot

So much is going to depend on the state of the ground at Ascot…

I’m conscious that some serious rain between now and the off could render what I write, completely useless.

Please bear that in mind, when deciding on bets…

1:15: If the going is relatively quick, I don’t think Big Chief Benny should be a 14/1 shot in this.
If however, it is soft, 14/1 is probably the right price…

1:50: Similarly, on quick ground, Ballyalton is not a 10/1 shot.
If it is soft though, Onenightinvienna will take a bit of beating.

If the ground is soft, I will also be keeping a close eye on Minella Rocco. He’s been hugely disappointing so far this season – but I’ve not given up on him just yet…

3:00: Sirop de Menthe is a slightly strange one for me to be tipping in this – but something is telling me to go with him…

He’s strange mainly because he is well held on form, by Pull the Chord.

The 2 met at Exeter in November and Pull the Chord came out on top by over 4 lengths – and is nearly a stone better off at the weights, today.
On the book, Sirop De Menthe has no chance of beating him…

However, I just feel that Sirpo de Menthe is a big improver.

His handicap rating says as much – though in fairness, it is difficult to get a line back to Pull the Chord.

Certainly, I was massively impressed by Sirops last run, at Sandown.

He finished second to Rayvin Black that day – but under his ideal conditions, that one is nearly unbeatable.

Sirop got a 4lb rise in the weights for that run – but if Rayvin hadn’t been in the race, he won have won by 12 lengths and likely got the best part of a stone rise.

Consequently, I like to think that he is still quite well handicapped !

Ofcourse, he’ll need to be, in order to win todays race, as he faces some potentially strong rivals.

Mondragon and Debdebdeb are the ones I fear the most – but they are first and second favourites.
Ideally, I would like to see some rain for Sirop - as his form in the heavy is excellent.

That said, I’m confident he can cope with soft ground if needed - particularly as today trip is as far as he wants to go.

3:35: This is in danger of being an irritating race !
I missed a trick earlier in the week, by not tipping Flemenstar.
He was a general 10/1 shot at the time – but I wasn’t sure he was going to run.

Once he was declared, I should have tipped him (he was still 10/1) – but I waited and by the time the tipping window opened, 10/1 had become 7/1.
7/1 could still be a good price – but the horse wants soft ground – and is a poor traveller.
If the ground is at least soft by the off – and if he market vibes for him are strong (suggesting he is well in himself), I would be happy enough to take 6/1 or maybe a touch less.

If the ground isn’t soft enough, then I think Ma Filleule could be the one.
She finished second in this race last season, on ground that was softer than ideal – and I could see her going very close again this time round…

As you’ve doubtless gathered, I would be looking to oppose both Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste.

Paul Nichols may have Silviniaco right today – but he’s never been a 2m5f horse.

It will take some ride from Noel Fehily (and probably very soft ground) for him to come home in front.

Dynaste arguably is a 2m5f horse – and if the blinkers spark a revival, he could go very close.

However, on balance, you have to think that both horses are probably past their peak and therefore should be taken on.

4:10: A bit like Sirop De Menthe, there are risks with Muhtaris, but there is also something compelling me to tip him…

Firstly, he is not sure to stay the 2m7f trip – and he probably won’t relish heavy ground (if that materialises).

However, in terms of ability, I think he is a fair bit better than his current mark of 119, so I’m going to take a risk on him.

He has only run once over hurdles this season – at Wetherby at the end of October.
He ran really well that day, just failing to catching Billy No Name on the run in.
That one won again earlier this week – and is now likely to be rated a stone higher than he was at Wetherby, so Muhtaris certainly had a job on that day.

In truth, if he had hurdled more fluently, he would probably have won that race. Hopefully todays longer trip will give him a bit more time to get organised at the obstacles.

Though he’s not run over hurdles since October, Muhtaris has run on the flat.
That was at Southwell, early last month, when despite being the 20/1 outsider of 6, he was a good winner.

As a result of that win, he is now rated 83 on the flat – and that suggests a rating of 119 over hurdles should be well within his compass.

The final tick in his box, is trainer James Evans.

He is having a really good season – and has an excellent strike rate at Ascot.

Hopefully Muhtaris can add to that today.
Of the others, then Captainofindustry is one I considered – and I would be fearful of him, if the ground did come up soft.

Aside from him, the dangers are probably at the top of the market, in the shape of What a Moment, Billy Dutton and Petethepear.

Wincanton

2:50: Both come with risks, but the 2 that interest me most in this, are Tagrita and Queen of the Stage.

The former is being backed – which could be significant. However, I would probably be more inclined to take a risk on Queen of the Stage – particularly if she drifts out beyond 4/1…

3:20: Irving is priced up at even money in this – and that looks about right.
I could certainly see a variety of ways he could get beaten – but if he is back to his best, then he is the best horse in the race and should win.

Pain au Chocolat is the really interesting one.
It’s not easy to understand why Dan Skelton has switched him back to hurdles. It could be just to pick up some place prize money – but if he as really well backed, he could be worth following.

3:55: Gardefort looks the most likely winner of this - but there is no margin in a price of 9/4.

Ultragold is the danger – but you would want to see money for him before getting involved.

4:30: This is a poor race and The Chuckmeister is quite interesting…

He was priced up very defensively by the bookmakers on the opening show yesterday.

That was presumably because they were stung by a Chris Gordon horse, making its stable debut, earlier in the week.

I’m not surprised to see it has drifted significantly this morning (out to 12/1 from 5/1 last night) and if it keeps on drifting, I wouldn’t be interested in it.
However, if money does come for it at some point, then it could well be significant.

Fairyhouse

2:55: I think this is a race that you want to be watching very closely…

It is ridiculous that Townshend has been put in an even money favourite is a competitive 13 runner handicap - but such is his reputation.

Bought from France by Rich Ricci for 170K Euro, he is expected to be much better than his 131 rating.

At that kind of price, he had better be !

Without him in the race, is would be a fascinating contest.

The likes of Squouateur, Mall Dini, Sam Red and Diamond Cauchois, could all be serious horses – but you feel they are going to be playing second fiddle today…

Whatever, make sure you keep a close eye on things, with a view to the future.

3:25: I would have liked to tipped Baie Des Iles in this - but the price is a bit too tight…

She is a progressive mare – and will be well suited by todays conditions.
I think she is nearly guaranteed to run well – but against some talented, if inconsistent rivals, I don’t think she is guaranteed to win.

That said, finding the winner isn’t easy.

Mala Beach is favourite – but in truth, victory for all bar Vic Canvas, wouldn’t come as a big surprise.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Haydock 2:40 Harry the Viking 0.375pt win 10/1

(E) Haydock 3:15 Horizontal Speed 0.25pt win 25/1

(E) Haydock 3:15 Woodford Island 0.25pt win 9/2

(E) Ascot 3:00 Sirop De Menthe 0.25pt win 10/1

(L) Ascot 4:10 Muhtaris 0.25pt win 8/1