Fontwell was washed away on Friday, leaving just the 2
meetings today: at Sedgefield and Punchestown.
Both
are reasonable – if unspectacular – with the highlight of the day, the Grade 2
Tied Cottage chase at Punchestown.
I’ve
managed to find a tip on the day – and it will be the final tip for
January.
It’s
been a generally disappointing month: part down to the weather – and part down
to me struggling for a bit of form.
Officially speaking, the month will finish about level –
which is hardly a disaster.
That
said, if you have been just following the tips, I suspect you may have made a
slight loss (unless you were able to secure best prices).
Those using the Info, have probably fared a little
better, because there were plenty of winning mentions in the first half of the
month.
As always, you pay your money, you make your choice…
As always, you pay your money, you make your choice…
On
to today then – and the rationale for the tip – plus a few other
thoughts…
Sedgefield
3:50
Mwaleshi has been on my radar since his first run of this
season - and I’m hopeful that I’ve chosen the ‘right’ day to support
him…
The
run that first caught my eye, was at Aintree, in a veterans chase.
He
ultimately finished well beaten that day, but the race was over 3 miles and he
showed up well until the home straight.
My
feeling was that dropped back half a mile, he would be interesting…
That
actually happened in his very next race: but it was quite a hot contest at
Wetherby (won by Village Vic) and with the ground a touch quick and his mark
unchanged, I opted to leave him alone.
His
next run was also over 2m4f – but that was over the National fences – and he
only got as far at the 9th…
On
his most recent run, he was dropped back to 2 miles – but that is probably too
short for him, unless he is able to outclass the opposition.
He
wasn’t that day, but still ran pretty well behind a couple of decent sorts in
Gardefort and Sir Valentino.
As a
result of that run, he has been dropped a further 6lb in the handicap – which
means he will running today off a mark 10lb lower than he started the season
from.
That
makes him a very well handicapped horse.
Precisely a year ago today, he ran third at Wetherby off
a mark of 142.
That
was in a class 2 event and he was beaten just over 2 lengths.
Today, he is running in a class 3 event, over the same trip – off a mark of 125.
Today, he is running in a class 3 event, over the same trip – off a mark of 125.
I
think there is every chance he can take advantage of the handicappers
leniency…
In
terms of concerns: then I have a couple…
Firstly, there could be a lot of pace in the race – and
Mwaleshi likes to race prominently.
That
said, I had the same concern over Johnny Og last Saturday – and he managed to
find a way round it !
Mwaleshi doesn’t need to front run, so hopefully Danny
Cook will find a way to deal with things.
My
other slight concern is the ground.
I would prefer heavy (or at least soft) – but the official going description is good to soft.
That said, the going stick reading is 5 – which I generally consider soft – and I honestly can’t believe it can be that quick in Sedgefield at this time of the year.
I would prefer heavy (or at least soft) – but the official going description is good to soft.
That said, the going stick reading is 5 – which I generally consider soft – and I honestly can’t believe it can be that quick in Sedgefield at this time of the year.
In
truth, both a minor concerns rather than major issues.
All
of this said, my biggest concern is definitely market strength.
Winners from the Sue Smith stable – particularly when
they have Danny Cook on board – are well backed. Almost without exception.
I could see an argument for Mwaleshi being a 5/2 shot today. If he goes off at bigger than 7/2, I will be worried…
I could see an argument for Mwaleshi being a 5/2 shot today. If he goes off at bigger than 7/2, I will be worried…
0.5pt win Mwaleshi 4/1
Talking of Smith/Cook runners that are well
backed…
Good
Vibrations in the handicap hurdle at 2:15, seems to be firmly in that bracket
!
He
opened up last night at 3/1 – but is a 6/4 shot now !
I
thought he faced a couple of potentially interesting rivals in the shape of
Carlo Rocks and the well handicapped Up and Go.
However, if the money is down (and it appears to be), I
suspect we might see Good Vibrations take his form to another level.
The
novice handicap chase at 2:45 looks a pretty open affair…
Victory for any of the 5 runners would come as no great
surprise, so in the circumstances I am drawn to the outsider,
Lucematic.
She
is relatively unexposed for a 10 year old – and has run only once so far this
season.
That
was when finishing a very creditable third at Newcastle, off the same mark as
today.
It’s
over 2 months since that race, which is a slight concern – but provided she is
ready to do herself justice, I suspect she could outrun her current odds of 7/1
(and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her drift, near the off).
Punchestown
The
Tied Cottage chase is off at 3:00.
Felix Yonger is understandably favourite – but you won’t
be too surprised to learn that I would be inclined to take him on with
Flemenstar.
He
took advantage of Un De Sceuxs falls to win the grade 1 two mile chase at
Leopardstown over Christmas – and whilst he was maybe a lucky winner that day,
it was still very much a step back in the right direction, for this formally
high class chaser.
It’s
clear that he’ll never reach the heights that were once hoped – but on official
ratings, he is still the equal of Felix Yonger – and we know he’s in good
form.
Certainly at 4/6 Felix; 9/2 Flemenstar, I know where the
value lies…
There is a very tricky looking Pertemps qualifier off at
2:30.
I
thought Mall Dini the most likely winner – but I can’t be interested in him at
5/1.
High
Stratus is a better value option at 12/1.
He
ran a nice race in a conditions event last time – and his 4lb rise for that run
is effectively offset by the claim of Donagh Myler.
I
think he has a better chance of winning, than his odds imply.
Not
for Burning is a less likely winner – but more likely to get placed.
If 16 go to post and you can secure some of the 16/1 with PP, he is worth considering as an EW play.
If 16 go to post and you can secure some of the 16/1 with PP, he is worth considering as an EW play.
It’s
a little disappointing to see Baie Des Iles installed as 3/1 favourite for the
Grand National trial at 4:05 – but I do think she deserves to be market
leader.
I
was keen on her last time when she won under a peach of a ride from Derek O
Connor – and a 6lb weight rise for that win looks fair enough.
She’s not got O Connor in the saddle today – but in Ruby, she has a fair replacement !
She’s not got O Connor in the saddle today – but in Ruby, she has a fair replacement !
Again, it’s a very eye catching booking (particularly as
it sees Ruby riding close to his minimum) – and whilst I couldn’t really
recommend supporting her at the current price, I do think she is the most likely
winner.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
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