The
weather has claimed Fakenham, leaving Ludlow as the sole NH meeting
today…
There is just the one tip on the day, and despite it
being in a relatively poor contest, I was quite keen to issue it
early.
It
makes my life easier if I can issue tips early, as it means that I can produce
the write-up knowing what I’ve tipped.
I
sent the tip out just after 8:30 – and immediately the price was crushed on
BF.
The
horse was available at 6.8 on BF when I issued – but within seconds, was
trading at 6.2.
Needless to say, the bookmakers reacted:
-
Sky and VC cut it within a minute.
- SB
and Coral cut it within 2 minutes.
-
Tote, BF, L – and Sky again, cut it within 3 minutes.
I’ll
be amazed if more than a handful of you got 6/1 – and not many more 11/2 – and
that’s simply not on.
I
pride myself on issuing tips at achievable prices - but someone (possibly more
than 1), is stopping this from happening and therefore jeopardising the
service.
I’ve
raised the issue numerous times before - and asked for it to stop.
Clearly, my request has had no effect, so I’m now going
to take action.
From
tomorrow onwards, I will have 2 distribution lists – and I will stagger the
issuing of tips.
Initially I will just put a handful of the guys that I
know and trust on the first distribution list and they will get the tips 5
minutes before everyone else.
Each
day, I will move a couple more people to the first distribution list
I
will monitor BF every time I send out a tip.
If a
price crash occurs, I will have a good idea of who has caused it.
Whoever is doing it will not be allowed on the service
next season (and obviously will continue to receive tips late (very late !) for
the remainder of this season).
I
can’t tell you how disappointed I am to having to be taking such
action.
Not
just because it will waste an extra 10 mins of my time, for every tip I issue
(and make errors more likely) - but also because I desperately want to create a
TVB community, where everyone pulls together for the greater good.
Such
is life, I guess….
If
anyone feels they have a good case for being on the first distribution list,
then feel free to get in touch; similarly, if anyone wants to own up to taking
below the odds on BF – and promises not to continue doing so, then it’s not too
late to sort things out…
Anyway, on to the rationale for todays tip – and some
other very brief thoughts !!
Ludlow
Fishing Bridge is a horse who has been on my radar for
quite some time now…
He
was first a ‘mention’ at the beginning of last season, when he made his chasing
debut at Ludlow.
He
jumped poorly that day, but still showed he had enough ability to remain
interested in.
Next
time out however, he fell – and his chasing career was put on hold…
He
was returned to hurdles for his following run
– and in a first time visor, won well in heavy ground at Ffos
Las.
That
was in a better contest than todays – and off a pound higher mark, so from a
handicapping perspective, there is nothing to stop him from winning
today.
Since that win, he has run 6 times and not really
featured.
However those runs have generally been in better quality
races (class 3) and off higher handicap marks.
In
the last of them at Ffos Las, he actually looked as if he might be involved in
the finish, when making a move up the home straight.
He
weakened out of things from the second last, but as that was only his second run
of the season, it may still have been needed.
I
would expect him to be cherry ripe today; and off a good mark in a winnable race
–and with perfect conditions, I think he should go very close.
Non
of his opponents fill me unduly with dread…
Market Option and
Rainbow Haze are the obvious ones to beat – but neither are world
beaters.
I’ll
also be interested to see how Shy John gets on over hurdles. I tipped him over
fences on his penultimate run (when he fell, behind Aachen).
In
summary, this looks a winnable race – and I’m optimistic that Fishing Bridge
will be up to winning it !
0.375pt win Fishing Bridge 6/1
There is little else to get excited about on the Ludlow
card…
The
handicap chase at 2:00 looks most likely to go to one of the top 2: Take the
Mick or Still Believing.
The
former is an even money shot – which means the Still Believing is the more
attractive betting prospect, at 10/3…
The
only other race worth a mention, is the novice chase at 3:00.
In
truth, this doesn’t really warrant a mention as a contest - but it will still be
good to see potential top notcher, Garde La Victoire, strutting his
stuff.
We
shouldn’t learn anything about him today, as I would expect him to have no issue
conceding 10lb to some inferior opponents.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
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